Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions: DEMETER

In Greek mythology, DEMETER, daughter of Cronus and Rhea, is the goddess of vegetation and fecundity.


Demeter, on orbit configuration (image by CNES)
DEMETERは地震電磁気観測と地球電磁環境観測を目的としたフランス宇宙研究センター(CNES)の小型衛星プロジェクトで、2004年６月29日に打上げられ、マグニチュード4.8以上の地震9000回との統計解析の結果、夜間の地震前４時間以内にVLF帯電波強度が顕著に減少すること報告しています（Nemec et al., 2008）。DEMETERは2010年末に運用を終了しました。

Where is She Now?

Heavens-Above : 2004-025-C

View from Satellite

12/2010 DEMETER last scientific commands The final science commands established by the science ground segment at LPC2E (Chemistry and Physics of the Environment and Space Laboratory) was recieved on board Demeter at 9:03 on 7/12/2010. This command brought to a conclusion Demeter's Science Mission on the 9/12/2010. This was an emotional moment for all of the CNES team. The Demeter mission, the first MYRIADE microsat developped and launched by the CNES, leaves us a rich heritage of six years of data which have allowed scientists to significantly improve our knowledge of the ionosphere and to think up new experiments sur as the Taranis mission. This data will continue to be used in studying the link between ionospheric perturbations and seismic and volcanic activity. The final satellite operations will begin shortly, including a procedure to burn-up remaining fuel on board and passivation of the satellite.

A microsatellite for science (CNES)

In 1996, CNES began to develop a series of microsatellites weighing about 100 kg each, called Myriade. Demeter is the pioneer of this series. Alongside its scientific mission, it also serves as a testbed for new technologies.

In 1998, CNES issued a call for ideas for microsatellite missions in preparation for the Arcachon space science seminar. Among the 26 projects suggested, the SPC (Scientific Programme Committee) chose 2 missions—Demeter and Picard.

The Demeter programme was proposed by the LPCE (Laboratory of Environmental Physics and Chemistry, CNRS) in Orléans, France, which is involved in the development of the project and its payload, along with other laboratories.

1. CNESの小型衛星ミッション計画において、地震電磁場観測衛星DEMETERが2001ないし2002年に打上げが認められたことは、世界的な地震電磁気現象の分野の研究として大変歓迎すべきことである。
2. 2001ないし2002年の時点ではNASDAや理研等の地震フロンティア研究が 継続しているか否かは明らかでないが、その時点には日本国内での地上電磁場観測ネットワーク（地上での電磁場(DC～HF)、電離層電波サウンディング等）が完備していると思われ、衛星観測との同期観測は極めて大きな学問的成果をもたらすことが期待される。従ってNASDAとしては国内地上局（鳩山）でのミッションデータ受信を、重要な課題として推進するべきである。
3. NASDAの地震リモートセンシングフロンティア研究での種々の観測・理論研究より、大気や電離層が地震に敏感に反応することが明らかになってきたが、地上－衛星で同期した総合的観測は本研究における中核的テーマである。 "Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling"について、重要な研究 成果を与えることが期待でき、地球科学研究に大きく寄与する。
4. DEMETERのもう一つの目的が地球電磁環境観測であり、地球電磁気サイエンスチームの多くの委員にも、色々な周波数帯での電磁環境研究にも有用である。この点からもNASDA地上局でのミッションデータ受信は重要である。

DEMETERの協力につきましては、データ利用の科学研究協力を中心に議論を進めています。直接受信につきましては非常に厳しいリソースの制約があり実施可能性について未だ結論が出せない状況です。今後、大学や文部省傘下の国研との分担、協力も視野に入れて調整を進める予定ですので、 引き続きご支援とご理解下さいますようお願い申し上げます。

－日本やアメリカと比較し、フランスあるいはヨーロッパの宇宙産業はどの分野で付加価値を与えることができるのでしょうか？

アラン・ベンスーサン氏　まず、衛星打ち上げの分野です。アリアン（Ariane）は世界の商用通信衛星の60％を打ち上げてきました。このうち75％が日本向け衛星です。第２位のアメリカは、その市場シェアは30％にすぎません。日本が最も苦慮しているのが、日本製ロケットの品質の問題で、アリアンの性能に高い関心を示しています。同じように日仏が技術協力すれば、地球観測、中でも自然災害の予知・防災の分野で、高い成果をあげることができるはずです。すでにCNESは、地球観測衛星ALOSの打ち上げに際して、「干渉ホイール」という概念を開発しました。これは、干渉計を使って数センチの精度で地盤の地形とその変形を検知することができます。さらに、地上での地震検知システムに加え、電磁信号の受信により地震を検知する我々のデメター（Demeter）計画も日本人の高い関心を集めることができるのではないかと考えています。まず、第一ステップとしては、データ処理分野での日仏の共同作業が期待されています。

Demeter mission: a microsatellite for the detection of seismic/tsunami ionospheric signals
M. Parrot, P. Lognonne, J. Artru, and Demeter Team

* Not on the News!

The Earthquake which just took place in India is iniating again the debate on the forecast of natural disasters. The launch of several satellites in the coming years by Japan and France, as well as a strengthened international cooperation should ease the detection of seisms.
We must continue to find solutions to understand what happens and improve our forecast so say the participants of the Franco-Japanese colloquium on the detection of natural disasters by satellites which ended yesterday. How can one forecast natural disasters and what are the space tools which could inform the populations in order to win precious time?
Every year the earthquakes, volcanoes, flood... caused hudge damages : approximately 100 000 death and 100 Beuros for the overall planet.
A satellite is an ideal observation point but it should be equipped with the right measuring instruments and it should be place at the right place at the right moment. Many observation satellites are already monitoring the Earth, but their coverage is not sufficient. "At present, the data are updated every months, we needs those data day by day with a precisions of some centimeters" so says P. Lognome of the Institute of Physics of the Globe from Paris. "We need a satellites network to monitor our planet on a permanent basis" he adds.
In fact we need not only enough satellites, but also instruments. "We must watch at the right place with the right sensor and the right precision" said Mr. Jose Achache, Scientific Director at CNES. (…)
All the space powers hold all or part of these equipments. Japan is one of the most threatened country as regards seisms. Tokyo has 8 specialized institutes such as the Nied (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention). According to Mr. Satoshi Fujiwara, of STA, Japan will have in two years a new generation satellite which will strengthen their capacity and called ALOS (Advanced Land Observing Satellite). (…) "Last year no country could prevent natural disasters" said Serges Plattard, Director of International Relations at CNES. "We have signed a cooperation agreement with the Japanese and Canadian space agencies and the India space agency should join us soon" Europe is planning a serie of highly specialized micro satellites such as Demeter (Detection of ElectroMagnetic Emission Transmitted from Earthquake regions) to be launched in 2002 (…)
All these projects will enable to save precious time before a disaster. "On the occasion of an earthquake a warning delay of a few minutes is sometimes vital. It can enable to evacuate buildings, cut electricity to avoid fires and it can save many lives" concluded Jose Achache.

　電磁波や磁気、地電位などのほかに磁界異常に伴う各種電波の変化…。電磁気学的な研究は近年進歩を遂げ、地震予知の実戦段階に近づいている。 　東海から関東、北陸を中心に全国に張り巡らした四十の観測点からデータが東海大海洋学部にあるセンターに集まる。長尾助教授らが取り組むのは地下の電流を観測する「ＶＡＮ法」だ。ギリシャで一九八〇年代に開発された予知法で、Ｍ５・５以上で的中率約七〇％という実績に注目した、上田誠也東海大教授（７１）＝当時東大教授＝が日本に導入した。
　九六年から文部省（現文部科学省）関連法人の「地震国際フロンティア研究」として予算が付き、本格的な予知実験を始めた。ノイズの問題があるが、これまで十回程度Ｍ５クラスの地震で事前の異常信号をとらえている。昨年十月の鳥取県西部地震（Ｍ７・３）では、他のグループ研究者らが一週間前から電波異常をとらえた。
　昨年は、三宅島の噴火で国の総合観測班に加わった東大地震研の笹井洋一教授（６０）と上島誠助手（３８）らが地震前に磁場が変化するのを明瞭にとらえるのに成功した。フランスからは電波で地震を予知する衛星打ち上げ計画「デメテール」のニュースも入ってきた。
　しかし今、この分野への風当たりはきつい。阪神大震災以来、予知悲観論が台頭し、政府は疑心暗鬼だ。
　「予知は難しいけど、挑戦すべきもの。なのに一部の予知不可能論にみんな踊らされている」と電気通信大の早川正士教授（５６）は憤る。独自の電波解析で「一週間前なら、大規模地震が来るか安全か言える」段階まで来たが、長尾助教授らと進めるフロンティア研究の予算は止まりそうだ。東海地域を監視するのには最適な手法にも見えるが、評価は一定しない。
　成果を生かして東海地震の前兆をとらえられるかどうか?勝負の時は迫っている。

Il s’agit de vérifier grâce aux satellites la corrélation entre les changements électromagnétiques dans l’ionosphère et les bouleversements géologiques qui vont ébranler la croûte terrestre. Les chercheurs de l’institut russe Izmiran ont mis au point une méthode de prédiction séismique à partir des variations des fréquences dans la haute atmosphère. Ils proposent la réalisation du satellite Predvestnik (Précurseur) qui pourrait être lancé en 2002 pour vérifier leur méthodologie.

L’industrie ukrainienne, avec l’entreprise d’état Youchnoye, propose son système expérimental Poperedzhennya (ce qui veut dire Alerte). Un ensemble de trois satellites doit être lancé par une fusée Tzyklon-3. Il doit mettre en évidence les perturbations qui se produisent dans l’ionosphère à cause de flux d’énergie émis par la surface terrestre avant un phénomène séismique (www.yuzhoye.dp.ua).

　電磁現象の分析による本格的な地震予知研究は、1980年代にギリシャで始まった。工業国の日本は工場など人工物による「雑音」が入ることが障害だったが、情報技術の発達で必要な情報だけを取り出し、解析することが可能になった。主役は情報工学、物理学など従来の地震学者と異なる系統の研究者たちだ。
　最近も広島市立大情報科学部の吉田彰顕教授が今年3月の芸予地震で、発生1日前から電磁波に細かい前兆現象があり、発生と同時に消えたことを突き止めた。海外ではフランスが地震観測用に地球規模で電磁波データを集めるため、人工衛星を打ち上げる。
　電磁現象を使った地震予知には異論も多く、まだ発展途上の技術だ。だが、だれもなしえなかった地震予知の実現へ向けて一つの扉を開けようとしている。

It is not within the scope of this short article to discuss the scientific activities arising from the December 1999 action plan or the third French-Japanese space symposium on natural disaster management in January 2001. Scientists are currently cooperating on Demeter (see CNES Magazine 9), scheduled for launch in late 2003. Demeter's electromagnetic measurements may enable scientists to detect the small tremors that precede earthquakes. Japan, a country with a keen interest in monitoring such hazards, could also enhance this mission through its dense network of ground measuring stations.

The Rs 70 lakh project has been approved by New Delhi-based Indo-French Center for Promotion of Scientific Research — a body set up by the two governments 15 years ago. The Director of the Centre PGS Mony said that the cost would be borne equally by the two governments. Mony said the project would be coordinated by Ashok Kumar Gwal at Barkathulla University in Bhopal from the Indian side, and Michael Parrot of the French scientific agency CNRS in Orleans.
Earthquake prediction from space is based on the knowledge that the earth's crust emits characteristic electromagnetic radiations in few hours before an impending earthquake. The emissions perturb the ionosphere in several ways causing, for example, a sudden drop in the electron density by as much as 50 per cent, according to Parrot.

ここで文化のことについてうかがいます。たとえば日本ではロケット打上げが失敗したりすると、マスコミなどからはかなり厳しい意見が出されます。フランスでも同じですか？
－じつは、そこが日本の報道に接して違和感を覚えたところです。フランスも失敗しましたね。アリアン５の失敗を経験したので、日本の技術者の気持ちはたいへんよくわかります。でも、フランス人はアリアンが大好きです。失敗しましたか、そうですか、こんどはがんばってください、というようになります。ここが日本と違うところですね。失敗はしょうがないです。C'est la vie（セラヴィ。それが人生さ、しかたがない、といった意味）。
それは国民性といってしまえばそれまでのような気がするのですが、やはり「考え方」というのが異なるのでしょうか。
－うーん、フランス人と日本人では違うようです。フランスは分析的ですね、科学の考え方です。日本人は経験主義のような気がします。たとえば、フランスでは「なぜそれが起きるのか」と考えます。日本では「どのように起きるか」を気にしているようです。でも、こうした考え方の違う人たちが協力するのはいいことですね。ときどき、ちょっとむずかしいことがありますけど（笑）。
その「むずかしいこと」というのは？
－それはですね（笑）、たとえばグループどうしで研究発表をし合ったりしますね。そのグループの意見の決定権が誰にあるのかわかりません。フランスでは、見ればわかります。日本は決定に時間がかかりますね（笑）。
ちょっと耳が痛いですね（笑）。

On 10 January 2003, a contract for the launch of DEMETER spacecraft in 2nd quarter 2004 was signed between the French CENTRE NATIONAL D'ETUDES SPATIALES (CNES) and International Space Company (ISC) Kosmotras.

The DEMETER weighing 125 kg will be launched into a 700 - 740 km SSO, along with other spacecraft on a Dnepr cluster (multiple spacecraft) mission. DEMETER is designed to measure electrical and magnetic signals in the upper atmosphere. These signals may precede, coexist with or succeed seismic or volcanic events on the earth surface.
ISC Kosmotras performed 3 Dnepr (converted SS-18 ICBM) launches in 1999, 2000 and 2002, which successfully deployed 12 spacecraft belonging to customers from UK, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Germany and USA.

SS-18 flight history accounts for 160 launches. The successful launch on 20th December 2002 has again proved the reliability of this rocket, which will be available for launches of spacecraft under the Dnepr Program until 2020.

ISC Kosmotras hereby offers all potential customers an opportunity to sign up for this launch.

　地震予知は、明らかに新段階を迎えており、広範多様な観測体制から得られるデータの積み上げをもう少しつづけると予知の原理的可能性が間もなく見えてきそうな気がする。
　いま注目されるのは、フランスが打ち上げる地震予知地球電磁場観測衛星（なぜ日本でできなかったのか）と、日本のアクティブ信号による地下監視プロジェクト（「アクロス」計画）だ。

Ionospheric remote sensing of the Denali Earthquake Rayleigh surface waves (GRL)

* 参考：On the Possible Detection of Tsunamis by a Monitoring of the Ionosphere (JGR, 1976)

　１つは、観測の立場から過去のデータの蓄積に基づいて予測・予知をすることが重要であると思う。世界の自然災害データを紹介する。
　1995 年から99 年までの５か年間で災害発生件数は世界で約1,200 件であり、その約40％はアジア地域である。被災者の数は10 億4,000 万人であり、アジア地域は90％である。亡くなった方は、16 万6,000 人であり、アジア地域が60％以上である。災害の被害額は約50 兆円である。
　災害の予知・予測ができて警戒を発令しても被害が全部無くなることはあり得ない。仮に被害額の１％を減らせるとして年間1,000 億であり、そのわずか５％ぐらい、もしくは１％でも５か年間投入すれば、かなり高度なシステムが構築でき、被害額が簡単に取り返せる。
　観測衛星あるいは情報収集衛星を各省庁でも使うことになり、かつ過去のデータの蓄積とともにサイエンスを入れて予知・予測が発展すれば、更にそれに伴う通信手段、ブロードバンドの衛星も必要になり、日本国内のみならずアジアに対して国際貢献ができることを、この専門調査会で検討して提言していただきたい。

○地球観測分野について、２点申し上げたい。
　１つは、観測にとどまってはならない、つまりデータを加工し、その結果として、識別なり、予測なり、予知なり、を示すところに進んでいってこそ、観測が活きることをさらにクローズアップしていただきたい。

The MYRIADE micro-satellite series

　ロシアやフランスの研究者は８０年代以降、地震の前にＶＬＦ（超長波）電波が異常に発生する現象を多数報告してきた。日本では９６年度から、科学技術庁の「地震総合フロンティア研究」の中で研究が進み、阪神大震災などのデータ解析の結果、地震前のＶＬＦの伝わり方の異常は電離層の異常が原因とみられることが分かった。こうした成果にフランス国立宇宙研究センターが注目。自然災害防止につながる最優先課題として衛星打ち上げを決めた。フランス大使館は「ＤＥＭＥＴＥＲの成果は世界全体から期待されている」と語る。

Demeter軌道投入シーケンス(CNES)

BAIKONUR. June 28 (Interfax-Kazakhstan) - The Baikonur spaceport is ready to launch a Dnepr rocket that will lift several satellites into orbit.
The launch is scheduled for 8:34 a.m. Moscow time on June 29. "Units of the spaceport's 8th Experimental Department have positioned the rocket, and operators have taken their seats at the command post waiting for the remote-control launch," a Baikonur representative told Interfax.
The Dnepr will orbit DEMETER (France), UniSat-3 (Italy), SaudiSat-2, SaudiComSat-1 and SaudiComSat-2 (Saudi Arabia), LatinSat-C, LatinSat-D and AMSat-Echo (Space Quest, USA). The Dnepr rocket is a modified version of the RS-20 (SS-18 Satan by NATO classification) liquid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile.

31:13-32:50 [Lancement du micro satellite Demeter] Reportage consacré au lancement du micro satellite français "Demeter". En alternance, commentaire sur images factuelles, images d'archives et interviews de Daniel VIDAL MADJAR, directeur des programmes d'observation de la Terre au CNES et de Pascal

MOSCOW, June 29 (Itar-Tass) - The Russo-Ukrainian converted rocket Dnieper is to launch eight foreign-made microsatellites into space from Baikonur cosmodrome at 10:30 Moscow time (07:30 GMT) on Tuesday, an officer in the Russian Space Defence Forces has told Itar-Tass.
The Cosmotras Russo-Ukrainian company by means of the carrier rocket Dnieper will launch the microsatellites Demetre (France), the UniSat (Italy), the SaudiSat-2, SaudiCommsat-1, SaudiCommsat-2 (Saudi Arabia), the LatinSat-C, LatinSat-D, and the AMSat-Echo (USA). The satellites will be put into solar-synchronous orbits at altitudes of 700-800 km.
The rocket Dnieper has been developed on the basis of the world's highest-powered intercontinental ballistic missile RS-20 (SS-18 Satan, according to foreign classification). Experts point out the rocket's ability to stay in a silo for long ready for launch. The rocket, which has a takeoff weigh of 211 tonnes, is highly reliable and is a cheap vehicle for the delivery of a payload weighing up to 3.5 tonnes into space.
The Dnieper rocket can be used for the launch of spacecraft provided with acceleration modules to high elliptical orbits and to departure flight paths towards the Moon. Three successful launches of the carrier rocket Dnieper from Baikonur have been carried out since 1999.

DEMETER
1 28368U 04025C 04183.72327235 .00000023 00000-0 15986-4 0 129
2 28368 98.2647 253.3003 0018089 263.0663 96.8480 14.55005541 356

　マグニチュード７以上の大地震は、世界では年間10～20回発生しており、衛星を利用すれば比較的短期間に定量的評価が可能である。これまで、DEMETERと同種の衛星は旧ソ連、米国でも打ち上げられている。特に旧ソ連は多数の科学衛星による観測で地震発生と電磁場変化の関係を研究してきた。
　我が国の地震電磁気研究は、平成７年より旧科学技術庁の主導で、理化学研究所の「地震国際フロンティア研究」と旧宇宙開発事業団の「地震リモートセンシングフロンティア研究」が行われた。前者は2001年度で終了し、観測点等が各地の大学に引き継がれた。後者は2000年度で終了し、研究は中止となった。1999年の第２回日仏宇宙協力シンポジウムではフランスからDEMETER受信の協力要請があったが、予算上の問題で協力実現には至らなかった。
　地震と電磁場変化の関係を研究する上でデータ取得の機会が増大することは有意義であり、今回の打上げ成功をきっかけにして、地球観測衛星を利用した災害の予知・予測について再検討を行うことが望まれる。

　リモートセンシングは火災状況など震災後の災害監視にも利用されているが、この技術を地震予知に利用できないものであろうか。残念ながら、現在のところ良好な成果は得られていないが、フランスは地震予知のための人工衛星「ＤＥＭＥＴＥＲ」の打ち上げ計画を発表した（二〇〇四年六月二十五日）。これは地震の前に発生する電磁気異常を観測しようとするものである。日本の学会の反応は冷たいようだが、筆者としては大いに期待している。（村上篤司・環境防災学部助教授）

日仏自然災害ワークショップ（GeoHazards 2004）報告：小泉尚嗣（産業技術総合研究所・GeoHazards2004実行委員会）

　私は，東海地震を主な対象とした地下水観測による地震予知研究の話をしたが，フランス人からの質問は，2000年三宅島噴火の際の地下水変化に対するものが多かった．小山（1997）の指摘するように，フランス人の関心は，地震よりも専ら火山にあるようである．フランスは，本土（？）には活火山は皆無で，海外領土にのみ活火山があるにもかかわらず，一般の関心が高いのはなぜかを尋ねてみたが，フランス人研究者も「わからない」といっていた．この回答が得られたら，火山のみならず地震も含めた自然災害一般に対して一過性の関心しか持たない日本人の気質を変えられるかもしれないなどと考えた．
　また，通常興味を持っている，地震・火山分野以外の災害研究とその対策の話を聞けたのは大変新鮮であった．対象とする分野は違っても，考え方の枠組みや手法が身近なものである場合（それが明示されている場合），興味深く講演をきけた．
　懇親会等で面白かったのは，強烈なブッシュ米国大統領批判が聞けたことで（返す刀で「シラクも弱腰だ」などといっていた），痛快であると同時にさすがはフランス人だと思った．「米国何するものぞ」という気概は，研究に対する取り組み方にも表れていて，フランスでは，「米国が取り組んでいないこと」がひとつの有力なモチベーションになるとのことである．そして，米国でもフランスでも共通にあるのは，フロンティア精神であろう．「欧米がやっているから」が有力なモチベーションになりがちな我々が学ぶべき態度であると思った．（日本地震学会ニュースレター Vol.16 No.5 January 10, 2005）

* 関連：Rapport de mission : Worshop GeoHazards, 1er au 4 décembre 2004 (bulletins-electroniques.com)

Earth-shaking data Environmental disturbances are now under close scrutiny. Launched in late June, the Demeter microsatellite (Detection of Electro Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) is gathering data for in-depth studies. Its science mission is to acquire precise measurements of seismic activity. In the three months after its launch, Demeter proved its ability to record high-resolution data using electric and magnetic sensors covering a broad range of frequencies. These data have revealed natural emissions of previously unknown extent. For example, Demeter has recorded quasi-periodic “whistler”-type waves generated in both hemispheres and propagating as far as the equator. Other recent results show variations in measurements recorded for an area that, two days later, experienced an earthquake registering six on the Richter scale (on 15 September at 7:10 p.m., latitude 14.25°, longitude 120.42°). These first data are encouraging, and will help further scientists' investigations into the origins of the disturbances observed.

今回のワークショップでは、地震に伴う電磁波を観測するために、米国のベンチャー企業が2003年に打ち上げた超小型衛星Quakesatが地震に伴う電磁波を検出した報告、昨年フランスが打ち上げた地震電磁気観測衛星Demeterの初期結果などが出てきました。現在イタリア、メキシコ、トルコでも地震に伴う現象を観測する衛星計画が議論されています。

Hayakawa thinks the atmosphere holds the answers: he measured ionospheric disturbances between 3 and 30 kilohertz a few days before Japan's 1995 Kobe quake. And Michel Parrot of France's National Council for Scientific Research (CNRS) in Orleans agrees. He points to preliminary data from a European Space Agency satellite called the Detector for Electromagnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions (DEMETER).

Les sciences de la Terre avec un interet partage pour la gestion des catastrophes naturelles, particulierement les tremblements de terre. Les donnees fournies par Demeter interessent les scientifiques chinois et une cooperation devrait etre etablie pour l’exploitation des donnees.
En echange, un acces aux donnees du systeme terrestre de mesures electromagnetique chinois (CSES) pourra etre ouvert aux scientifiques francais. Des perspectives sont egalement envisagees dans le domaine de la surveillance de l’environnement avec deux projets francais (Geotrope-R et Traq) sur la chimie de l’atmosphere.

7．地震・津波・火山分野における観測事業の分析結果

⑤衛星リモートセンシング技術の高度化

（1）観測の現状	（2）観測の空白	（3）今後3～5年で実施すべき観測等	（4）平成19年度に実施すべき観測等
・大学において電磁観測衛星Demeter（フランス,2004）の観測データを用いて地震電磁気現象の解析を実施。	・磁気観測衛星は多くの地震電磁気を捉えているが、地震と電磁気現象との物理的な関係が未解明。現象解明の糸口をつかむため、電磁気観測衛星の地震電磁気現象の解析事例の蓄積が必要。	・地震電磁気観測衛星の観測データと解析事例の蓄積。

　観測責任者のミシェル・パロ博士は「マグニチュード（Ｍ）４・８より大きい約二千八百例の地震について、発生前後三十時間に衛星が震源上でキャッチした電波の強さを調べた」と説明する。
　太陽が電離層に及ぼす影響を取り除くため、二千八百のデータを足し合わせて統計的に処理したところ、地震の約十時間前から、一キロヘルツ以下の電波が弱まり、数キロヘルツ以上の電波は強まっていた。電波が偶然に変化する確率は５％以下という。
　パロ博士は「今回は地震と電離層の科学的な関係を調べるのが目的。将来、複数の観測衛星を上げれば地震予知も可能かもしれない」と話す。

ALMATY. June 7, 2006. KAZINFORM /Konstantin Borodinov/ Negotiations between Kazkosmos National company and representatives of French companies Alcatel Alenia Space and CNRS have started in Almaty today. At the meeting with journalists chairman of the board of Kazkosmos company Serik Turzhanov introduced the French delegation that will discuss opportunities of establishment of French-Kazakh scientific satellite and in perspective an entire constellation of analogous apparatuses.

Kazakhstan integrates into the world space community in the light of current Message of President Nursultan Nazarbayev to people of Kazakhstan Strategy of Kazakhstan's entry into the 50 most competitive countries of the world, he stressed. Cooperation with France and Russia will give us new opportunities. For instance, we will be able to research earthquake precursors and obtain accurate forecasts with the help of the satellite.

In the course of today's talks French specialists suggested Kazakhstani colleagues surveying creation and employment of French satellite Demeter in France. The sides debated also possible establishment of satellite industry of nanotechnologies, micro and small satellites on the basis of Baikonur. Upon completion of the negotiations contract of partnership and creation of satellite constellation is expected to be signed.

　地震・火山活動に関連した電離層変化を研究することを目的に、2004年にマイクロ衛星が打上げられ、現在機能は正常である。
（注：この衛星は科学衛星であり実用衛星ではない。一予測手法としての有効性は今後立証要）
　2006年6月にツールーズでワークショップが開催され、同ミッションは2008年迄延長される見通しである。
　このプロジェクトには、日本も客員研究員として科学レベルで参加している。

Molchanov et al., Global diagnostics of the ionospheric perturbations related to the seismic activity using the VLF radio signals collected on the DEMETER satellite

Seismo Electromagnetics as a New Field of Radiophysics:
Electromagnetic Phenomena Associated with Earthquakes
M. Hayakawa, O. A. Molchanov

Successful autonomous orbit control

In 1998, an autonomous orbit　control (AOC) experiment was included　as a technology payload on the　Demeter microsatellite to demonstrate　that autonomous stationkeeping is both　possible and operationally viable. Manoeuvres to keep a satellite in its　nominal orbit are usually performed by　the control centre on the ground. With　AOC, however, Demeter can calculate　and complete these manoeuvres on its　own. This is a big step, since it involves　the transfer of decision-making　responsibilities from human operators to the autonomous system. An initial　test phase from April to October 2005　confirmed the reliability of the satellite's　orbit determination and control system.　A second phase began in April 2006 and is ongoing. AOC supports the satellite’s　primary mission by maintaining its correct position, thereby limiting　visibility conflicts at the Aussaguel ground station in　Toulouse, France. In March 2007, the number of AOC manoeuvres reached 100, less than two　years after the experiment began.　AOC has not been　performed over such　a long period on any　other civil space mission, making this a　world first. The trial　has been a　resounding success,　paving the way for　autonomous　stationkeeping on future missions.

Arnold Migus, Director General of CNRS (the French National Center for Scientific Research), and Yannick d’Escatha, President of CNES, met on July 30th to sign a new framework agreement between the two agencies which will carry them through the next three years. This new agreement prolongs the convention, originally signed in 1976, calling on the two organizations to work together in the area of Earth and Space Sciences. The complementarities between the two agencies’ respective competences in science and technology and the necessity to optimize investments led the two agencies to reinforce their cooperation. Among the most recent successes of this fruitful cooperation are the JASON oceanographic satellite, carried out in cooperation with the United States, the DEMETER micro-satellites (detection of seismic, volcanic and man-made signals), PARASOL (climate monitoring micro-satellite, carried out in cooperation with the United States), and the COROT satellite currently searching for exoplanets. [CNES & CNRS 07/30/07]

DEMETER衛星を用いた地震に伴う電離層擾乱の検出
○武藤史弥・吉田麻里・堀江　匠・早川正士（電通大）・Michel Parrot（LPCE/CNRS）

【CNES デスカタ長官】
・DEMETERなどのマイクロ衛星を始めとする小型衛星への取り組みを紹介。
・通信衛星と地上システムによるコスパス・サーサット等のセキュリティー面での国際貢献を紹介。

リサーチャーズ　地震予知の探究者たち

Michel PARROT, chercheur CNRS au Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l'Environnement (LPCE-Orléans) interviendra le 19 mars sur le thème "Perturbations ionosphériques et activité séismique" dans le cadre de "Terre en vue". Cette journée pédagogique pour les enseignants est organisée à Orléans dans le cadre des Mercredis de l'Espace du CNES, en partenariat avec le BRGM.

Spectrogramme fréquence temps de la densité de probabilité normalisée obtenu avec les mesures d’une antenne électrique effectuées de nuit
sur des tremblements de terre ayant une profondeur de 40 km ou moins, une distance de moins de 330 km par rapport àla trace de l'orbite et
(gauche) une magnitude supérieure ou égale à 4,8. (droite) une magnitude supérieure à 5.

List of Accepted Contributions - ST16 Results from the DEMETER satellite

1. Human control of radiation belt

Charged particles within the Earth's radiation belts travel in spiral trajectories along geomagnetic field lines. The strength of the magnetic field increases as the particles approach the Earth; because charge flows perpendicular to magnetic field lines, the component of the particles' velocity parallel to the magnetic field decreases. Usually, this causes particles to reverse direction and spiral back along the field lines, continuing until they reach the opposite hemisphere, where they reverse again. These trapped particles can be deflected by certain electromagnetic waves (whistlers) into the Earth's dense atmosphere (below 100 kilometers (60 miles)), where they cannot escape back to the magnetosphere. Noting that whistlers can be generated by ground-based transmission signals in the very low frequency range (VLF, used for military communications), Sauvaud et al. use satellite observations to investigate how a VLF transmitter located in Australia (labeled NWC) affects the population of inner radiation belt electrons first above it and then along the electron drift path around the Earth. They find that about 300 times more high-energy electrons are lost by the inner radiation belt to the atmosphere during NWC transmission periods than during nontransmission periods, suggesting that human systems can control radiation belt dynamics.

この会の特徴について多少の解説を試みると、セッション１．のVrancea地帯というのはルーマニアにおける地震頻発地帯である。ここではマグニチュード７クラスの地震が起き、1977年の地震は首都ブカレストにも大被害をもたらし、死者は1,000人を超えた。日本列島のように海洋プレートが沈み込んでいるいわゆる沈み込み帯以外では、地震の震源の深さはほぼ30～40km以浅であるのに、この地震の震源の深さは150kmもあり、そのメカニズムは未だに論議を集めている。セッション３．での衛星観測というのは、フランスが2004年に打ち上げた地震電磁放射検知衛星(Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions: DEMETER) の観測のことである。セッション５．で採りあげられたように、地震にともなって大気上層、高度100km以上の電離層に異常変動（電子密度の変動）が発生するということが最近大きな話題になっているので、それを直接検知しようというのである。自国にはほとんど地震などないのに、衛星を打ち上げたフランスの科学研究意欲は見上げたものといえよう。（上田 誠也：ルーマニア学士院附属研究所主催EMSEV-DEMETER2008出席報告 | 外国アカデミー等との交流）

But occasionally I come across research that is not so easy to dismiss. For example, data from the French micro-satellite DEMETER, which was launched in 2003 to investigate electromagnetic perturbations in the ionosphere, have been analysed by a team of French and Czech researchers (F. Nemec et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. doi:10.1029/2007GRL032517; 2008). These authors find that there are very-low-frequency electromagnetic fluctuations in the ionosphere above the epicentres of moderate and large earthquakes that occur a day or two before the ground starts to shake.

We present results of a systematic study of intensity of VLF electromagnetic waves observed by the DEMETER spacecraft in the upper ionosphere (altitude 700 km). We focus on the detailed analysis of the previously reported decrease of wave intensity shortly before the main shock during the nighttime. Using a larger set of data (more than 3.5 years of measurements) and a newly developed data processing method, we confirm the existence of a very small but statistically significant decrease of wave intensity 0–4 hours before the time of the main shock at frequencies of about 1.7 kHz. It is shown that the decrease does not occur directly above the earthquake epicenter but is shifted about 2
in the westward direction. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the decrease occurs more often close to shallower earthquakes and close to earthquakes with larger magnitudes, as it is "intuitively" expected, representing an additional proof of validity of the obtained results. Finally, no dependence has been found on the occurrence of the earthquake below the ocean or below the continents.

Can astronauts listen to BBC radio 4?

NICT研究成果公開システム

Discipline : Physique des plasmas
Résumé :
Les résultats basés sur les mesures d'ondes électromagnétiques effectuées par le satellite DEMETER sont présentés. Nous nous concentrons sur deux phénomènes différents: 1) les effets liés à l'activité sismique 2) les émissions avec des structures fréquentielles linéaires.

1) Nous présentons une étude statistique de l'intensité des ondes électromagnétiques observées à proximité des tremblements de terre. Nous montrons que pendant la nuit il y a une diminution statistiquement significative de l'intensité des ondes peu avant le choc principal.

2) Nous présentons une étude systématique des événements ayant des structures fréquentielles linéaires. Un ensemble d'événements statistiquement significatif a été obtenu en utilisant une procédure automatique ainsi qu'une inspection visuelle des données. Tous les événements sont entièrement analysés et classifiés. Dans la gamme EBF (ou toutes les six composantes électromagnétiques sont mesurées pendant le mode Burst), une analyse détaillée des ondes a été faite.

DEMETER observations 7 days prior to the M8 Samoa Earthquake which occurred on September 29, 2009 at 17.48.11 UT (location 15.51°S, 187.97°E). From the top to the bottom, the panels show the electron density, the electron temperature, the O+ ion density, and the earthquake occurrences along the satellite orbit. The red triangles indicates the closest approach to the Samoa earthquake and the many aftershocks. It can be observed an increase in the densities and a decrease in the temperature which are well localized above the future epicenter.

Small satellites industrial program in CNES　First satellite: Demeter (launched in 2004)
Mr. Mathieu GRIALOU, Representative, Tokyo Office

Small Satellites … changing the economics of space　Russia Vniiem “Kanopus” (3 satellite platforms)
Professor Sir Martin Sweeting, Executive Chairman, Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd (SSTL) (UK), Director, Surrey Space Centre (UK)

According to statements in the 'H' father Anagnostopoulos, confirmed what was stated in the press and specifically the newspaper "Ta Nea", after the end of the 9th Congress of the Greek Astronomical Society, held in Athens from 20 to 24 September 2009 but wants to expand further, given that "the investigation is still ongoing and there is still a long way until there is nothing new to announce."

Observation performed by DEMETER 3 days before the Haiti earthquake (magnitude 7) which occurs on January 12, 2010 at 21.53.09 UT (epicentre located at 18.451°N, 72.445°W). The top panel shows the variation of the electron density recorded at the satellite altitude during night time. The red triangle in the bottom panel indicates the time when the satellite is just above the future epicentre. A decrease of the density is locally observed around this area.

- désorbitation des 4 ESSAIMS (fin 2010) et Demeter(fin 2010)

Signals of two Japanese transmitters (22.2 kHz and 40 kHz) recorded on the ground VLF/LF station in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and on board the DEMETER French satellite have been analyzed during a seismic activity in Japan in May–June 2008. The period of analysis was from 18 April to 27 June. During this time two rather large earthquakes occurred in the north part of Honshu Island – 7 May (M=6.8) and 13 June (M=6.9). The ground and satellite data were processed by a method based on the difference between the real signal in nighttime and the model one. For ground observations a clear decrease in both signals has been found several days before the first earthquake. For the second earthquake anomalies were detected only in JJI signal. The epicenters of earthquakes were in reliable reception zone of 40 kHz signal on board the DEMETER. Signal enhancement above the seismic active region and significant signal intensity depletion in the magnetically conjugate area has been found for satellite observation before the first earthquake. Anomalies in satellite data coincide in time with those in the ground-based observation.

Demeter, a satellite capable of detecting electromagnetic perturbations

Under the name of Demeter, Greek goddess of the harvest lies a new generation of satellites developed by CNES that can detect and measure the ionosphere electromagnetic interference that may be associated with earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other tsunami- wave. Its advantage: the ability to quickly cover almost all seismically active regions of the globe. "Recent studies have observed in the ionosphere, about 100 km altitude, electromagnetic signals rather intriguing few seconds before some earthquakes," explains Pascale Ultré-Guérard, geophysicist at CNES.

"Demeter however, will not predict earthquakes," she says immediately. "It does not transmit its data in real time and will be connected to any decision center. It is only to validate a scientific hypothesis." But this mission complete ground measurements cause a better understanding of earthquakes and the long term possibility of piercing their secret. "Only once we have reliable parameters of seismic activity that we can, perhaps, anticipate earthquakes," she Ultré-Guérard.

These observations, combined used to construct models and draw maps of the average intensity of the electric field before some earthquakes and volcanic. If post-seismic emissions can be easily explained by acoustic waves generated by the movement of soil that causes the earthquake, however, the pre-seismic signals observed in the upper atmosphere are still poorly understood.

All earthquakes do not produce such disturbances, and physical processes behind these phenomena are still unknown. Several hypotheses are proposed: direct production of compression waves by the rocks near the epicenter, electric shocks due to charge redistribution in the soil.

A new algorithm for predicting earthquakes

On their side of Russian scientists under the leadership of Vladimir Kossobokov (Moscow Institute of International Theory of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics), have created a new model describing the formation process of earthquakes and to forecast them. The Russian scientist, one should expect, by 2018, a new powerful earthquake of the same type as that which caused the tsunami that devastated the coast of Sumatra in 2004.

These scientists have developed a new algorithm, called m8s, based on a model describing the process of the birth of earthquakes and the statistical data of seismic observations. It is designed to forecast the medium term (several years) of earthquakes and can be applied for earthquakes of different strengths, ie for a wide range of magnitudes in areas with different seismic activities. It is based on retrospective analysis of the dynamics of seismicity before strong earthquakes and very powerful (magnitude greater than 8).

Confirmation of the effectiveness of this algorithm was the most powerful earthquake in south-west of Sumatra December 26, 2004. The algorithm has shown that the risk of a catastrophe were multiplied by 20. Seismologists from the Russian Institute have found that the most powerful earthquakes have a very marked cyclicity. In addition, their power grows at the end of cycle. In the twentieth century, for example, the four largest earthquakes (Kamchatka, Alaska-Andréanov Islands, Chile and Alaskaddétroit Prince Williams, occurred in a relatively short time interval.

Experts say that such "shooting baskets" would have been extremely unlikely in the absence of link between these events. On the twenty-first century, Vladimir Kossobokov think, reports Agence TASS, it will happen by 2018 a major earthquake, similar to that which struck Sumatra in 2004. Its epicenter could be in one of the following five regions: western border between the U.S. and Canada, Chile, Kashmir, Sumatra, Indian Ocean (near the Andaman Islands).

We propose a mechanism to explain suggested links between seismic activity and ionospheric changes detected overhead. Specifically, we explain changes in the natural extremely low-frequency (ELF) radio noise recently observed in the topside ionosphere aboard the DEMETER satellite at night, before major earthquakes. Our mechanism utilises increased electrical conductivity of surface layer air before a major earthquake, which reduces the surface-ionosphere electrical resistance. This increases the vertical fair weather current, and (to maintain continuity of electron flow) lowers the ionosphere. Magnitudes of crucial parameters are estimated and found to be consistent with observations. Natural variability in ionospheric and atmospheric electrical properties is evaluated, and may be overcome using a hybrid detection approach. Suggested experiments to investigate the mechanism involve measuring the cut-off frequency of ELF “tweeks”, the amplitude and phase of very low frequency radio waves in the Earth–ionosphere waveguide, or medium frequency radar, incoherent scatter or rocket studies of the lower ionospheric electron density.

Best of DEMETER
M. Parrot
Director of research, PI of Demeter satellite mission, Laboratorie de Physique et Chimie de l'Eenvironnement et de l'Espace (LPC2E), CNRS, Orleans, France.

A big step for the prediction of earthquakes was made by Greek scientists at the University of Thrace, which has a long tradition in space research. Director of the Laboratory of Electromagnetics and Space, with a substantial scientific presence, is a professor and scholar Mr. Sarris.
The processing, analysis and interpretation of measurements made by the DEMETER 2004. Suitable software was partly from the French side, largely produced in the laboratory by graduate students of the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering (B. King, N. Vassiliadis and E. Sidiropoulos).
The last half of the scientists of the Laboratory of Electromagnetics and Space began to test their method of direct analysis of measurements made available by the DEMETER. The seismic tremors were once the verification of their investigations for years, and in 2004 processed data from the rain of electrons, which always precedes large earthquakes.
The data and signals of the satellite DEMETER analyzed have shown repeatedly that the nature of alerts few days before the earthquake occurred, consistent with other observations that have been announced by the new discipline of seismoelectromagnetics.

DEMETER搭載電場観測機器（ICE)のVLFスペクトル・データの解析手法をまとめたテクニカルノートが遂に完成しました。VLFスペクトルに見られる現象の自動検索方法を主体に、ラングミュア・プローブからの干渉電波（パラサイト電波）の除去方法や、ホイスラー電波の検出方法をまとめてあります。ICEのスペクトルデータの研究にお役に立てれば幸いです。（大西＠LATMOS/CNRSさん）

Invited Speakers Dr. Michel Parrot: MF Waves Observed by DEMETER

Abstract: DEMETER is an ionospheric micro-satellite launched on a polar and circular orbit at an altitude of 710 km in June 2004. This altitude was decreased to 660 km in December 2005. Its main scientific objectives are to study the ionospheric perturbations in relation with seismic and anthropogenic activities. Therefore, its scientific payload allows to measure electromagnetic waves and plasma parameters all around the Earth except in the auroral zones. In the MF frequency range, the data of an electric field antenna are recorded up to 3 MHz. Two different topics will be discussed in this paper.
(1) Global maps of the Earth reveal a persistent wave activity at MF frequencies above the location of ground-based VLF transmitters. It is shown that it is due to the perturbation of the ionosphere by these transmitters which produce ionospheric irregularities. Whistler waves generated by lightning strokes can therefore penetrate trough the ionosphere at MF frequencies at the location of these VLF transmitters.
(2) Global maps of the Earth also show a clear increase of the amplitude of the electric field in a narrow frequency band (660-680 kHz) right above the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). This effect is not observed during summer in the Southern hemisphere. The paper will discuss the relation of these MF waves! with the constant precipitation of energetic particles in the SAA due to the lower altitude of their mirror points. Characteristics of these waves and conditions of propagation up the satellite altitude are studied.

2（3）（3‐1）地震発生先行過程　「地震発生先行過程」計画推進部会長　中谷正生（東京大学地震研究所）

地震エコーは、電離圏の乱れであるし、また、DC‐ULF、 VLF帯での地震に関連した電磁気的異常に関して提案されているいくつかの物理メカニズムも、電離圏への擾乱を伴いうる。フランスCNRSでは、全地球的観測が行える人工衛星によってこれらの問題の検証をするために、電離圏パラメータを測定するために複数のセンサーを搭載した衛星 DEMETER を運用している。東京学芸大では、センサー開発と解析を担当 しているグループ （フランス LATMOS）と協力して、計測された電圧値等の生データの段階から、測定品質の評価を行った（図3）。イオン密度に関しては、わずかであるが太陽光と連動するようなノイズ的変化が見受けられており、 同レベルの微小強度を解析対象とする場合には十分注意が必要であることが分かった。現在はノイズ除去の方法を検討中である。電子密度および温度は計測されたデータにおいて絶対値が大きいため電極汚染による誤測定も考えられるが、相対変動に着目し複数の他の衛星（FORMOSAT3／COSMIC等）のデータと比較 したところある強度以上の相対値変動ならばおおむねデータとして利用可能な品質であることが分かった （東京学芸大学[課題番号：2908]）。

This document presents some scientific results obtained by DEMETER after 6 years in orbit. The complete list of papers can be found under the item PUBLICATIONS. Only few discoveries are illustrated by figures. They are classified according to the scientific objectives of the mission:

Study of the ionospheric perturbations in relation with the seismic activity,

Study of the ionospheric perturbations in relation with the man-made activity.

Other important topics have been studied because at the beginning of the mission we were in the decreasing part of the solar cycle and DEMETER was able to observe the effects of the intense magnetic storms. Finally to build bridges between DEMETER and the future micro-satellite TARANIS which will study the electrostatic discharges produced between the top of the thunderstorm clouds and the bottom of the ionosphere, the DEMETER data have been used to validate modes of the future experiments. Then new results concerning the thunderstorms have been obtained.

The scientific mission is over since the 9th of december 2010.

After more than 6.5 years, DEMETER scientific mission is stopped.
The mission center will stay active one year more, so you can continue to access the data. After this period, all the data will be transfered in the CDPP (Centre de données de la Physique des Plasmas).

Search for Electro-Magnetic Earthquake Precursors combining satellite and ground-based facilities Start date:2010-12-01 End date:2012-11-30 Project Acronym:SEMEP Objective: The project is intended to investigate the short-term transient processes in the global lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupled system using synchronous satellite and ground-based observations. The research will be based on analysis of the data obtained from several micro-satellites, including the French spacecraft DEMETER. The main scientific objectives of DEMETER are directly related to study of the ion-spherical perturbations due to seismic and man-made activities. Satellite data will be analysed together with those collected from the specialized network of identical VLF receivers distributed in Russia, Europe and Japan. The network operates in conjunction with powerful transmitters deployed all over the world and enables the search for electromagnetic earthquake precursors in highly seismo-active regions such as the Far East and Southern Europe. A unique experimental database of electromagnetic and seismic observations from both satellite and ground-based sources will be created using data covering the Far East and Southern European regions. The combined use of satellite and ground-based datasets enables us to resolve the problem of the separation of spatial and temporal variations, which is insoluble using single satellite measurements. The work plan of the project foresees combined data processing and extensive theoretical modelling of the interaction processes and the signal transfer mechanisms in the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere system. The method of global diagnostics of seismicity using both DEMETER and ground VLF signal observations has been already tested over Japan. The participants of the project have extensive experience performing investigations of seismicity and related geophysical phenomena as well as in the processing and analysis of satellite and ground based data. Overall, the project will fill several significant gaps in the understanding of the physics of the formation of ion-spherical disturbances caused by seismic activity. SEMEP: Search for ElectroMagnetic Earthquake Precursors

Tatsuo Onishi, Michel Parrot, Jean-Jacques Berthelier
The DEMETER mission, recent investigations on ionospheric effects associated with man-made activities and seismic phenomena

本年度で大きく進展したものは、次の２研究である。いずれも、大気圏・電離圏相互作用に起因し、地震先行電離圏擾乱の変動と類似する電離圏変動研究のものである。また、これらは、地震時に先行して観測された変動が地震起因でないことを示すのに重要であると考えられる。
(1) ひのとり衛星とDEMETER衛星で高高度電離圏電子密度・温度の経度構造の太陽活動度依存および年変化を調べた。これまで知られていなかった太陽活動度が高い時期にも活動度が低い時期と同様な構造が存在することを確認した。この経度構造はこれまでの知見を覆すほど大きな構造であることが分かったので、地震が電離圏に与える影響を研究する際にはこの構造の変化を考えることが必要不可欠である。現在この成果は論文査読中(JGR)である。
(2) 2009年7月22日東アジア・太平洋地域で発生した皆既日食時における高高度電離圏電子密度・温度変動についてDEMETER衛星のデータを用い解析を行った。日食の効果における温度低下ならびに電子密度現象が明瞭に見られたが、日食とは関連のない磁気嵐および赤道ジェット電流が日食時に発生したこともあり電離圏変動は複雑であった。しかし本研究により複雑な変動を分解して解釈することができそれぞれの変動の起源見いだすことができた。本成果は現在論文執筆段階である。
さらに地震に先行する電離圏変動の事例解析として四川地震時における電離圏変動を取り上げ、震央より南に地震前に電離圏擾乱があることが分った(NHESS, 2011)。

　高等教育・研究大臣Valerie Pécresse氏と投資委員会委員長René Ricol氏は、2011年3月23日、未来への投資プログラムの一環として5億ユーロを新世代の衛星開発に投資すると発表した。まずは、第一期の採択プロジェクトとして、衛星の応用開発及び新世代ロケットの開発分野の3つが選出された。

SWOT－フランス国立宇宙開発センター（CNES）、米航空宇宙局（NASA）との共同研究支援。1億7,000万ユーロ。海や河川、湖、浸水地域の水の水準を測定することが目的。

Satellite du Futur－Astrium、Thales Alenia Space の共同研究支援。4,250 万ユーロ。新世代の 衛星打ち上げのプラットフォームの建設準備。

Myriade Evolutions－ フランス国立宇宙開発センター（CNES）、ドイツ航空宇宙センター (DLR)の共同研究支援。4,000 万ユーロ。新世代の小型衛星打ち上げのプラットフォーム建設準備。

* Investissements d'avenir : annonce des trois projets lauréats de l'action Espace (Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche)

The present Project purpose is the problem-oriented processing of observational data collected and stored by former ionospheric satellite missions – their data mining with the aim to create the database of ionosphere waves catalogues. This is an urgent need of modern space science because its realization will help to improve considerably Space Weather nowcast and forecast and to promote the progress of actual today GMES and other applied studies, e.g., ionospheric monitoring of natural and man-made hazards. At a first stage of the Project fulfillment, the different types of wave data will be selected, processed and arranged in topical catalogues: atmosphere gravity waves, moving plasma disturbances (bubbles, blobs, TID, etc), and ELF-VLF plasma emissions (whistler waves, hisses, etc). Then the Ionosphere Wave Service will be created including the composition of catalogues metadata to provide useful tool to access the database through a web portal. Ionosphere Wave Service will be promoted to a great number of scientists and specialists working in the numerous theoretical and applied space oriented branches, such as space physics, Solar-terrestrial connections, Space Weather, Earth observation, natural and man-made powerful hazards monitoring, satellites launches and exploration, to name a few.

Abstract Deadline : June 30, 2011
No more than one A4 page with Times Roman 12pts and all margins to 2.5 cm.
Title in bold centred. All authors and corresponding affiliations (including e-mail addresses) centred. The presenter’s name must be underlined.
To be sent as a pdf file to demeter.workshop@cnrs-orleans.fr
An acknowledgment will be returned to the presenter.

Electromagnetic variations of the Earth & natural phenomena: the satellite DEMETER provides new findings the occasion of the second international symposium on DEMETER held at CNES headquarters last week, 80 geophysicists from around the world gathered to present the new results obtained from the large amount of data acquired during the six and a half years of the mission of this satellite.

The scientific objectives of this mission were to study ionospheric disturbances in relation to natural phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, or human activities, and the contribution to understanding the generation mechanisms of these disturbances.

DEMETER led to record changes in the electromagnetic environment of the Earth with sensors designed to measure the electromagnetic field (magnetic antennas, power antennas) in a wide frequency range, and sensors designed to analyze the ionospheric plasma (particle detector, ion spectrometer and the Langmuir probe). DEMETER is the first mission of this nature.

The presentations showed that there was a change in the ionosphere before earthquakes. But this change is small and can be detected as statistically. These results are currently being debated by the scientific community, the mechanisms to explain these disturbances are not yet understood and can not talk about possibility of prediction. Several presentations were devoted to the last major earthquake in Tohoku, held this year in March in Japan. An increase in the ionospheric density was observed a few hours before the earthquake.

The electromagnetic waves emitted by human activity are detected up to the satellite's altitude and several players have shown that waves of very low frequency transmitters, which are used for communications and navigation, induce changes in the radiation belts surrounding the Earth. Studies have also been devoted to the issue due to thunderstorm activity in the preparation of the mission Taranis.

Bringing together geophysicists and researchers from China, Colombia, Europe, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, United States ... and working on topics related to seismology, tectonics, electromagnetic emissions, ionospheric modeling, this conference has been characterized by fruitful discussions.

The mission DEMETER (Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) is the first project in the pipeline Myriades microsatellites developed by CNES and dedicated to the scientific missions at low cost. Launched in June 2004 on a quasi-synchronous circular orbit at an altitude of 715 km, its science mission ended in December 2010.

“Next year, we plan to release the complete processed archive of our results so far,” said Stepan Stverak, of the Czech Republic’s Astronomical Institute.
“This dataset will then be available to the scientific community for statistical study, to help identify how ionospheric plasma can be perturbed by solar and space weather events.”

Results will also be cross-checked with France’s Demeter satellite, which sought ionospheric disturbance caused by seismic activity – a potential method of predicting earthquakes.
Proba-2 and Demeter flew in similar orbits before the French satellite ended its mission last year.

AE21A-0227 Asymmetric V shaped streaks recorded on board DEMETER satellite above powerful thunderstorms
NH21E-04 Anomaly extraction methods and earthquake research based on local plasma parameters of DEMETER Satellite
NH21E-05 Attenuation of VLF electromagnetic waves in the ionosphere above earthquakes: statistical study using data from the DEMETER spacecraft
NH22A-04 Statistical analysis of the ionospheric electron density recorded during seismic activity
NH23A-1549 Precipitation of high energy particles recorded by DEMETER satellite before strong earthquakes
SA43A-1886 DEMETER Observations of Ionospheric Heating Time Constants Above the NWC VLF Transmitter

One surprising result is that there are more perturbations for earthquakes with an epicentre below the sea. This could be linked to a possible mechanism of generation of these ionospheric perturbations. For instance, it is known that the electrical conductivity is larger above the sea. It has been also shown that the Earth’s crust of the Chile induces more perturbations prior to earthquakes than in another seismic part of the world. [pdf]

Search for some 15 years, the researchers are in the ionosphere for telltale signs. They face the problem that the many hundreds of kilometers thick layer of the atmosphere is constantly changing. The alternation of day and night, seasons, lightning, human activity and geomagnetic storms affect the structure of the charged layer.

A possible link between natural phenomena such as earthquakes or volcanic eruptions and disturbances to investigate the ionosphere, the French CNES space 2004 Demeter sent the microsatellites into space. Actually registered the satellite, which was in operation until late 2010, several anomalies before strong earthquakes. An analysis of more than 9000 earthquakes also revealed that the intensity of certain radio waves four to six hours before the earthquake with a magnitude of five or more falls in the vicinity of the epicenter - signifying changes in the conductive ionosphere.

In response to the "Call for a Small mission opportunity in ESA's Science Programme for a launch in 2017", issued on 9 March 2012, the following Letters of Intent (LOI) have been received:

65 Anagnostopoulos, Georgios ganagno＠ee.duth.gr　Demokritos University of Thrace
Validation of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling Concept Associated with great (M>4.5) Earthquakes by using low orbit satellite observations

50°anniversaire du CNES, Missions spatiales et vols pilotes de l'Agence Spatiale Francaise. - Claudie Andre-Desays. - Sheetlet de 4 valeurs


© 2012 espacelollini.com

Presenting the Special Issue EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR RESEARCH: GROUND-SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS, LABORATORY EXPERIMENTS, AND THEORETICAL MODELS, edited by Pier Francesco Biagi, Michael E. Contadakis, Masashi Hayakawa and Tommaso Maggipinto.

Mais cette annonce reçoit un accueil prudent. "L'ionosphère est un milieu excessivement variable, prévient ainsi Michel Parrot (CNRS), responsable du programme Demeter, satellite dédié à la recherche de signaux précurseurs. La météo ou les humeurs du Soleil perturbent régulièrement l'ionosphère. Il est donc difficile d'affirmer que l'anomalie observée est strictement liée à l'imminence d'un séisme."

Since 2004, 17 Myriade-based microsatellites have been placed in orbit. The first, Demeter, was used to measure the Earth's magnetic environment and forecast earthquakes. The spacecraft was deorbited in mid-2010, leaving more than six years of scientific data on the link between ionospheric perturbations and seismic and volcanic activity.

　フランスのDEMETER衛星の2004年から運用を停止した2011年12月までの電離圏観測データについて，1次データからの検証・解析を行い，「大気圏・電離圏相互作用に起因し，地震先行電離圏擾乱の変動と類似する電離圏変動」をいくつか見いだした。今年度はこれらのまとめと並行して，全データを用いて大地震と電離圏の相関解析を行ったが，蓄積されたデータのみでは目的とする変動が抽出できなかった。今後は地震起因でない変動を経験モデルで取り除いたデータに対して相関解析を行う（東京学芸大学［課題番号：2908］）。

There was onboard DEMETER many scientific instruments which have been used to study the ionospheric parameters. But other instruments have also performed measurements for the attitude control of the satellite as the fluxgate magnetometer. This magnetometer has evaluated the 3 components of the Earth's magnetic field at the satellite altitude. Due to a low sampling rate (1 second) and a low resolution (50 nT), it was not used until now for the scientific studies undertaken with the satellite data. But in exceptional circumstances, exceptional data, and in November 2004, the DEMETER satellite was afflicted by the largest magnetic storm of the entire mission. At this time, the magnetometer revealed, at high latitudes, a system of field-aligned currents in a density depletion related to waves named auroral kilometric radiation (see Figure). More details are given in: Parrot, M., and J.-J. Berthelier (2012), AKR-like emissions observed at low altitude by the DEMETER satellite, J. Geophys. Res., 117, A10314, doi:10.1029/2012JA017937.

The DEMETER micro-satellite: objectives and results

M. PARROT, LPC2E/CNRS, Orleans, FR

European researchers initiated the ‘Search for electromagnetic earthquake precursors combining satellite and ground-based facilities’ (SEMEP) project to investigate LAI coupling by creating an experimental database enabling resolution of spatial and temporal differences in EM and seismic observations.

Scientists are combining data from several satellites including the French spacecraft DEMETER with that from a specialised network of EM detectors (very low-frequency (VLF) receivers) in Europe, Japan and Russia. The combined data should aid in the search for EM earthquake precursors.

During DEMETER operation 2004-2010, many strong earthquakes took place around the world, facilitating statistical evaluation of EM phenomena and their relationship to seismic activity. The combined data method of analysis has already been tested over Japan.

　2011年3月11日東北地方を襲った巨大地震とそれに伴う大津波は、この2つの現象の解明と科学者の予知能力について数多くの問題を提起しました。災害予測にこれまでも多大な予算を投じてきた日本は、自然災害から国民の命と経済を守るさらなる大きな課題に直面しています。何年にもわたり、数多くの地震研究プロジェクトが日本で進められてきましたが、さらにこの1年、日本はもとより世界の科学者達が時間と資金を費やし、この震災発生時とその後に得られた貴重なデータや観測結果を分析しています。
　このような状況の下、在日フランス大使館はフランス原子力・代替エネルギー庁環境分析監視局の協力により2日間にわたる「地震・津波」のセミナーを開催します。約50名の日本人専門家と約20名のフランス人専門家が一堂に会し、東北大震災の地震と津波の研究結果や関連テーマ（データ解析、災害警報システム、古地震学、関東・東海地震など）について発表します。初日のセミナー終了後にはフランス大使公邸でのレセプションも予定されているほか、将来の協力の可能性について、参加者に打ち解けた話し合いの場を提供します。このセミナーは日本社会の根幹にかかわる主題について研究者同士が意見を交換し合う機会となるでしょう。

F. Němec, O. Santolík, M. Parrot, J. S. Pickett, M. Hayosh and N. Cornilleau-Wehrlin

人工衛星を利用した地震予報の研究 (2013.04.23)

　火山地震前兆現象の検出のためのDEMETER衛星と搭載体研究を開始し、一番最初にした事は、海外の研究事例の調査である。我が国でも、科学技術衛星や多目的実用衛星を利用して、電離層プラズマの観測を試みたことがあるが、火山と地震の前兆現象の観測を目的として専門化され観測機器を開発した経験はない。海外の衛星の中で、これらの目的のために開発された最初で唯一の人工衛星が、フランスのCNES（Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales）を中心に開発されたDEMETER（Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions）衛星である。研究プロジェクトの初期にこれらと接触して直接訪問をして観測データを使用するための協議と共同研究を約束する機会があった。

　衛星が一つ発射されるためには、5年以上の準備期間とそれ以上の材料の分析期間が要求される。実際Parrot博士は、DEMETER衛星が発射されるまでに10年以上を準備してきて、5年以上の成功観測と連続データの分析期間を経て、現在は来月引退を控えている。これらの努力が今後どのような結実につながるかは分からない。 DEMETERの後続衛星では、日本でも関連する計画があったがキャンセルされ、2014年に打ち上げ予定の中国のCSES（China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite）で見ることができる。結局、宇宙分野に継続的かつ果敢な投資をする中国が、この分野でも最も先進的な研究を行うことにされるし、いくつかの苦い思いがする。

４月：International Workshop on Earthquake Precursors

Michel Parrot Seismically related observations performed by the satellite DEMETER

５月：地震の予知は本当に不可能なのか（報道ステーション）

　日本の地震調査研究の関係予算は、昨年度で４１１億円。そのうち、地震の前兆現象の研究に出されているのは１９００万円に過ぎない。地震の前兆現象の研究に力を入れなくなったきっかけは、１９９５年の阪神淡路大震災だ。この時、国も学会もまったく予測できなかったことから、直前予知に必要な前兆現象の研究は見直され、事実上、棚上げにされた。地震学会も「地震予知は不可能」としているが、本当に不可能なのか。

* 「報道ステーション」 2013年5月9日（木）放送内容 (kakaku.com)

６月：Statistical analysis of an ionospheric parameter as a base for earthquake prediction (JGR)

This paper is related to the use of ionospheric density variations in order to tentatively predict earthquakes. The results of this statistical analysis are presented as function of various parameters. The ion density was recorded by the low altitude satellite DEMETER during more than 6 years, and a search for anomalies was automatically done with the complete data set. In a second time, a software checked if each anomaly could correspond to an earthquake. The search was done at less than 1500 km from the anomaly positions, and until 15 days after the anomaly time. The earthquakes have been classified depending on their magnitude, depth, and position (below the sea or inland). This attempt to predict earthquakes of course generates a lot of false alarms and wrong detections. Nevertheless, it is shown that the number of good detections increases with the magnitude of the earthquakes. In average the number of perturbations is higher the day of the earthquake, and then smoothly decreases for the days before. Earthquakes below the sea are better detected. It exists seismic areas close to the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly and at high latitudes where the number of natural perturbations is too important to expect a high number of good detections. Finally, when there are several perturbations corresponding to a single earthquake, it is possible to combine their positions in order to have a better estimation of the location of the future epicentre. But uncertainties about the time and the magnitude are large.

７月８～12日：2013 IEEE Nuclear and Space Radiation Effects Conference

Anomalies of the ADSP 21060 Onboard the DEMETER Satellite
C. Inguimbert, S. Bourdari, D. Falguère, ONERA; R. Ecoffet, N. Balcon, CNES
The microcomputer ADSP21060 of the DEMETER satellite experienced a number of Single Event Effects (SEE). The correlation of these events with both the proton fluxes and the electron fluxes of the space environment is shown.

８月：Additional attenuation of natural VLF electromagnetic waves observed by the DEMETER spacecraft resulting from preseismic activity (JGR)

[1] We use VLF electromagnetic wave data measured by the DEMETER (Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite at an altitude of about 700 km to check for the presence of statistically significant changes of natural wave intensity (due to signals from lightning) related to preseismic activity. All the relevant data acquired by DEMETER during almost 6.5 years of the mission have been analyzed using a robust two-step data-processing schema. This enables us to compare data from the vicinity of about 8400 earthquakes with an unperturbed background distribution based on data collected during the whole DEMETER mission and to evaluate the statistical significance of the observed effects. We confirm previously reported results of a small but statistically significant decrease of the wave intensity (by ∼2 dB) at frequencies of about 1.7 kHz. The effect is observed for a few hours before the times of the main shocks; it occurs during the night. The effect is stronger between March and August, at higher latitudes and for the positions of hypocenters below the sea. We suggest an explanation based on changed properties of the lower boundary of the ionosphere, which leads to a decrease of the intensity of lightning-generated whistlers observed at the spacecraft altitude. This effect might result from a lowering of the ionosphere associated with an increase in the electrical conductivity of the lower troposphere due to an additional ionization of air molecules at the Earth's surface prior to earthquakes.

８月：第200回地震予知連絡会

　電磁気学的現象による地震の短期予測についてレビューが行われた。地震に先行した電離圏電子密度の減少や夜間のVLF電磁波強度の減少などの事例が紹介され、電磁気学的地震先行現象と地震発生には統計的相関がある可能性が示された（東京学芸大学・鴨川仁助教資料）。

* Current status and evaluation of short-term earthquake prediction – Electromagnetic precursor (地震予知連絡会会報第91巻)

９月：Ionospheric Disturbances Recorded by DEMETER Satellite over Active Volcanoes: From August 2004 to December 2010 (IJG)

The study analyzes electromagnetic data and plasma characteristics in the ionosphere recorded by DEMETER microsatellite over erupting volcanoes during the life of the mission: from August 2004 to December 2010. The time window in which anomalous changes are searched brackets the onset of the eruptive activity from 60 days before to 15 days after the period during which most pre- and posteruptive phenomena are amplified. 73 volcanoes have entered into eruption. For 58 of them, 269 anomalies were found in relation to 89 eruptions. They are distributed in 5 types, similarly to the ones observed above impeding earthquakes. The two main types are electrostatic turbulence (type 1, 23.4%) and electromagnetic emissions (type 2, 69.5%). The maximum number of types 1 and 2 anomalies is recorded between 30 and 15 days before the surface activity, corresponding to the period of accelerating phenomena. The amount of anomalies seems related to the powerfulness of the eruptions. The appearance seems dependant on the likelihood to release bursts of gases during the preparatory eruptive phase. For the huge centenary October 26, 2010, Merapi (Indonesia) eruption, 9 ionospheric type 2 anomalies appeared before the eruption. They mainly emerge during the mechanical fatigue stage during which microfracturing occurs.

11月：Final Report Summary - SEMEP (Search for electro-magnetic earthquake precursors combining satellite and ground-based facilities)

The investigations were based on the analysis of the data obtained from the micro-satellites - French Demeter, Russian Cosmos-900, together with publically available data from the Cluster (ESA) and THEMIS (NASA) missions. The main objective of the Demeter satellite was to search for and characterise ionospheric perturbations that can be associated with seismic activity. Up to now, Demeter has been the only satellite that has the capability of surveying the Earth's electromagnetic environment in the ionosphere on a global scale. The high-quality database created during the mission (which contains measurements from October 2004 to December 2010) has enabled us to carry out the statistical analysis that is necessary to ascertain the link between the recorded perturbations and seismic activity. In addition to the DEMETER data, the records from the plasma density analyser onboard Cosmos-900 have been used to provide information about plasma environment. The occurrence of plasma waves has also be investigated based on data obtained from the Cluster and THEMIS missions that provide measurements of the electric and magnetic field fluctuations in the ULF frequency range.

12月：「地震及び火山噴火予知のための観測研究計画」平成24年度　年次報告（成果の概要） 2（3）（3－1）地震発生先行過程

これまでの課題と今後の展望

　本計画における先行現象の研究は、断層滑りの時空間発展モデルの中に位置付けるための物理的理解を重視してきた。一方で、ここ数年になって、世界のあちこちの研究グループから、統計的に有意な(否定しがたい)先行現象の査読論文が発表された。余震という時空間クラスタリングの影響をのりこえて、地震先行現象の統計的有意性を示すのは、かなり念のいった作業が必要なのだが、事例数の稼ぎやすい前震・電離層異常といったもので、やっと、それができるようになったのである。ひとつでも、そういう先行現象があるのなら、大地震がおこりやすい特別な物理状態という意味での準備過程が実在す ることになるから、そのような状態を診断することによって大地震の発生を予測しようとする、伝統的なアプローチの正当性はあきらかとなる。本計画の外側でおこっている、このような重要な変化を含めて、現状の分析と今後の展望を考える。（中略）
　こうしてみると、先行現象の再現性・普遍性が高くないからといって「気のせい」や「にせもの」であるということにはならない。相関の有意性が高ければ、見逃し率・空振り率が高くても「ほんもの」である。 経験則として確率予報に反映させることは可能であるし、また、逆に、どのような現象が、どのような先行期間、見逃し率、空振り率で大地震の発生と関連しているのかということは、地震発生の物理過程に対する有力な拘束条件である。様々な現象と地震発生の経験的相関を定量的に評価することの重要性をあらためて強調したい。

12月：Hey, it’s weird up here – there must be an earthquake in the atmosphere (AGU Blogosphere)

There is still a lot of debate about how this data can be used to predict earthquakes. Seismic activity is not the only thing that disrupts the ionosphere. Sunspots and changes in the strength of Earth’s magnetic field can affect the ionosphere in ways that look similar to the changes preceding an earthquake.

Cornely, who is from Haiti, also looked at metrics from sunspot and magnetic field data around the time of the earthquake but did not find any correlation with the change in ionosphere activity. The only event during that time that corresponded to the disturbances in the ionosphere was the earthquake, he said.

Typically, changes in the ionosphere can predict only extremely large earthquakes in the hours before they strike. But if smaller earthquakes can be detected months in advance, pre-emptive measures to quell the damage could be taken.

Predicting earthquakes with disturbances in the ionosphere “is very new science,” said Cornely. “I wanted to see if there was any truth to this and go back and model it.”

12月：2013年度第16回雑誌会（北海道大学地震火山研究観測センター）

発表者：森田 笙
題名：Statistical analysis of the ion density measured by the satellite DEMETER in relation with the seismic activity.
著者：Michel Parrot
雑誌名：Earthquake Science December 2011, Volume 24, Issue 6, pp 513-521, doi: 10.1007/s11589-011-0813-3
要旨：この論文は,電離層観測用の衛星DEMETER に記録された電離圏の電子密度の変化と 地震の関係について調査したものである。大きな地震が発生するのに先だって,電離圏の 電子密度が擾乱して観測されることが複数の先行研究から判明している。しかし他の様々な要因によっても擾乱は引き起こされているため,著者は観測された衛星データを用いて 統計的な解析を行い,地震起源の擾乱現象を突き止めようとした。結果として,ランダムに設定したものよりも,地震震央の上空近傍での衛星データのほうがより電離圏の擾乱現象が観測された。またマグニチュードが大きくなると,その数や強さも大きくなることが判明した。また今回, 内陸での地震よりも海底地震の方がより擾乱が強く現れることも明らかになった。観測網をさらに広げることで,擾乱を引き起こす地震に共通な特徴を見出すことが可能になるのではないかと著者は主張している。

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2014

１月23日：The first meeting results (ISSI)

On 20-24 of January the first “kick-off” meeting of the International team 298 representing the project Multi-instrument Space-Borne Observations and Validation of the Physical Model of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling took place in Bern, in the International Space Science Institute.

* Multi-instrument Space-Borne Observations and Validation of the Physical Model of the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere-Magnetosphere Coupling

４月：Earthquakes Short-term Prediction and time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) (EGU)

DEMETER lessons and next mission analysis　Valery Korepanov

５月：12th AGILE Science Workshop "ASTRO-EARTH: astrophysics and high-energy terrestrial phenomena"

DEMETER: Results and Challenges (M. Parrot)

５月：Ionosphere Waves Service (IWS) - a problem-oriented tool in ionosphere and Space Weather research produced by POPDAT project (J. Space Weather Space Clim.)

In the frame of the FP7 POPDAT project the Ionosphere Waves Service (IWS) has been developed and opened for public access by ionosphere experts. IWS is forming a database, derived from archived ionospheric wave records to assist the ionosphere and Space Weather research, and to answer the following questions: How can the data of earlier ionospheric missions be reprocessed with current algorithms to gain more profitable results? How could the scientific community be provided with a new insight on wave processes that take place in the ionosphere? The answer is a specific and unique data mining service accessing a collection of topical catalogs that characterize a huge number of recorded occurrences of Whistler-like Electromagnetic Wave Phenomena, Atmosphere Gravity Waves, and Traveling Ionosphere Disturbances. IWS online service (http://popdat.cbk.waw.pl) offers end users to query optional set of predefined wave phenomena, their detailed characteristics. These were collected by target specific event detection algorithms in selected satellite records during database buildup phase. Result of performed wave processing thus represents useful information on statistical or comparative investigations of wave types, listed in a detailed catalog of ionospheric wave phenomena. The IWS provides wave event characteristics, extracted by specific software systems from data records of the selected satellite missions. The end-user can access targets by making specific searches and use statistical modules within the service in their field of interest. Therefore the IWS opens a new way in ionosphere and Space Weather research. The scientific applications covered by IWS concern beyond Space Weather also other fields like earthquake precursors, ionosphere climatology, geomagnetic storms, troposphere-ionosphere energy transfer, and trans-ionosphere link perturbations.

５月：GNSSデータに地震前兆を探す（計測と制御）

　図1のfoEsデータは，地震前のTEC 異常を担うのは電離圏の比較的低い（高度100km前後）E領域であることを示唆する．DEMETER (Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) 衛星は，地震に先立つ電磁場の異常を検出するためにフランスから打ち上げられた衛星だ．多くの地震の前のデータを統計的に解析した結果，地震直前（地震発生の0-4時間前）に電離圏下端の高度が有意に下がることがわかった12)．この結果はわれわれがTEC で見出したものとほぼ調和的である．

６月：Multisatellite observations of an intensified equatorial ionization anomaly in relation to the northern Sumatra earthquake of March 2005 (JGR)

K. Ryu, E. Lee, J. S. Chae, M. Parrot and K.-I. Oyama

10月：Seismo-ionospheric coupling appearing as equatorial electron density enhancements observed via DEMETER electron density measurements (JGR)

K. Ryu, E. Lee, J. S. Chae, M. Parrot and S. Pulinets

11月：Suspected Seismo-Ionospheric Coupling Observed by Satellite Measurements and GPS TEC Related to the M7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake of 12 May 2008 (JGR)

K. Ryu, M. Parrot, S. G. Kim, K. S. Jeong, J. S. Chae, S. Pulinets and K.-I. Oyama

12月：Space Science Seminar: The challenges and problems in measuring energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere (Lancaster University)

The challenges and problems in measuring energetic electron precipitation into the atmosphere. Mark A. Clilverd British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United.

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2015

4月：EGU 2015

Earthquakes Short-term Prediction and time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) orals posters

Spatial analyses on seismo-ionospheric precursors observed by GIM TEC and DEMETER during the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake (solicited)
Jann-Yenq Liu, Yuh-Ing Chen, Ching-Chi Huang, Michel Parrot, Sergey Pulinets, and Dimitar Ouzounov

Events related to lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling observed by DEMETER
Michel Parrot, Katsumi Hattori, Tiger Liu, Alexander Namgaladze, Dimitar Ouzounov, Sergey Pulinets, and Valerio Tramutoli

ISSI project LAIMC - technical meeting (by invitation only) | Meeting of the proposers of the GEO-Task EQuOS (EarthQuake Observing System)

4月：Analysis of the enhanced negative correlation between electron density and electron temperature related to earthquakes Ann. Geophys., 33, 471-479, 2015

X. H. Shen, X. Zhang, J. Liu, S. F. Zhao, and G. P. Yuan

4月28日：人工衛星で検知された地震先行的な電磁波強度変動の統計的解析とメカニズム検討（2015年度 STPセミナー）

本研究においては彼らの使用したアルゴリズムを再構築することで、DEMETERの観測した全データ(6.5年間)による本現象の検証を行った。 その結果、 Nemecらの報告した地震先行的な電磁波強度減少は統計的に検証することができた。さらに本現象を検知したと思われる数軌道のデータを抽出し、時系列解析を行うことで、地震への接近にしたがって強度減少が起きている事例を直接確認することができた。本現象が観測された電磁波は落雷を起源とするVLF帯電磁波がホイスラーモードで衛星高度まで伝播してきたものと考えられるが、以上の現象は同時刻における全球落雷数との相関が見られなかった。したがって本現象は、電磁波発生後の伝搬過程での減衰が原因であると考えられる。減少の見られた周波数帯から、本現象のメカニズムとして地震先行的な導波管モードのカットオフ周波数上昇が考えられる。

6月9～12日：YerPhI Conferences 2015

LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK FOR KAZAKHSTAN Anatoliy Lozbin, Deputy Head of Scientific Space Systems Laboratory

* Scientific Lightning Detection Network for Kazakhstan (AGU Fall Meeting 2015)

6月18日：L' Homme, le vegetal, la planete ...et le fluide electrique (Fondation Ecologie d'Avenir)

８月：Earthquake precursors’ detection from space – Possible mission analysis (International Conference and Exhibition on Satellite)

Valery Korepanov, Lviv Center of Institute for Space Research, Ukraine

12月：A spatial analysis on seismo-ionospheric anomalies observed by DEMETER during the 2008 M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake (Journal of Asian Earth Sciences)

J.Y.Liu, Y.I.Chen, C.C.Huang, M.Parrot, X.H.Shen, S.A.Pulinets, Q.S.Yang, Y.Y.Ho

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2016

1月：Precursory enhancement of EIA in the morning sector: Contribution from mid-latitude large earthquakes in the north-east Asian region (ASR)

Kwangsun Ryu, Koh-Ichiro Oyama, Ludmil Bankov, Chia-Hung Chen, Minakshi Devi, Huixin Liu, Jann-Yenq Liu

1月：Propagation properties of quasiperiodic VLF emissions observed by the DEMETER spacecraft (GRL)

Mykhaylo Hayosh, František Němec, Ondřej Santolík, Michel Parrot

3月：Modifications of the ionosphere prior to large earthquakes: report from the Ionosphere Precursor Study Group (Geoscience Letters)

K.-I. Oyama, M. Devi, K. Ryu, C. H. Chen, J. Y. Liu, H. Liu, L. Bankov and T. Kodama

3月：CNES closely involved in France-Japan space dialogue (CNES)

This first meeting of the France-Japan space dialogue was attended by a large delegation of senior representatives from the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Office of National Space Policy, the National Security Secretariat, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sport, Science and Technology, the Ministry of the Economy, Trade and Industry, the Ministry of Defence and JAXA, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. They met with their French counterparts from the General Secretariat of Defence and National Security, the Joint Staff of the French Armed Forces, the French Defence Procurement Agency (DGA) and CNES, which also represented the Ministry of Higher Education and Research.

* 日仏包括的宇宙対話の開催（外務省）

4月：Short-term Earthquakes Forecast (StEF) and multi-parametric time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) (co-organized)
　　　Contribution of the Demeter Satellite in the natural hazards prediction and prevention (EGU 2016)

9月：Variations of ionospheric plasma at different altitudes before the 2005 Sumatra Indonesia Ms7.2 earthquake (JGR)

Jing Liu, Xuemin Zhang, Victor Novikov, Xuhui Shen

9月：Evolution of the Ionospheric Plasma Turbulence over Seismic and Thunderstorm Areas (Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering)

Jan Blecki, Michel Parrot, Jan Slominski, Malgorzata Kosciesza, Roman Wronowski, Sergey Savin

12月：Ionospheric Sounding for Identification of Pre-seismic Activity (ESA)

The results of INSPIRE project have demonstrated that the ionospheric anomalies registered before the strong earthquakes could be used as reliable precursors. INSPIRE consortium highlights that for the short time forecast model, it is important to have access for real-time data of rapid changes of the key ionospheric and meteorological precursors.
Configuration for the dedicated multi-observation experiment and satellite payload was proposed for the future implementation of the INSPIRE project results. In this regard the multi-instrument set can be divided by two groups: space equipment and ground-based support, which could be used for real-time monitoring.
Together with scientific and technical tasks the set of political, logistic and administrative problems (including certification of approaches by seismological community, juridical procedures by the governmental authorities) should be resolved for the real earthquake forecast effectuation.

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2017

11月：SA '17- SIGGRAPH Asia 2017 Symposium on Visualization

Visual exploration of ionosphere disturbances for earthquake research　Fan Hong, Siming Chen, Hanqi Guo, Xiaoru Yuan, Jian Huang, Yongxian Zhang

11月：Statistical analysis of the ionospheric ion density recorded by DEMETER in the epicenter areas of earthquakes as well as in their magnetically conjugate point areas (ASR)

Mei Li, Michel Parrot

12月：Statistical Study on Variations of the Ionospheric Ion Density Observed by DEMETER and Related to Seismic Activities (JGR)

Rui Yan, Michel Parrot, Jean-Louis Pinçon

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2017

3月：Application of satellites system based on different heights for ionospheric disturbances monitoring (MATEC Web Conf.)

Ivan Kaloshin, Vladimir Skripachev, Irina Surovceva, Vladimir Kuznetsov and Alexander Kharlamov

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DEMETER Program

DEMETER is a project of low altitude microsatellite that mainly aim the study of electromagnetic signals generated by seismic or volcanic events. Its launching is expected for mid-2001. It will be the first mission of the CNES (National Center Of Space Research) microsatellite issue.

Scientific Objectives

• Study of ionosperic perturbations in relation with seismic activity
• Global study of the Earth electromagnetic environment

Scientific Payload

• A search coil magnetometer
• A set of four electrical probes
• A plasma spectrometer
• A langmuir probe
• A particle detecter

The Physical Parameters measured by DEMETER

Burst mode
• Waveforms of three electric components from DC up to 1 kHz
• Waveforms of three magnetic components from 10 Hz up to 1 kHz
• Waveforms of one electric and one magnetic components from 1 Hz up to 15 kHz
Survey mode
• Spectral analysis of one electric and one magnetic components from 1 Hz up to 15 kHz
  　(frequency resolution 20 Hz, time resolution 1 sec.)
• Spectral analysis of one electric components from 15 kHz up to 10 MHz
  　(frequency resolution 10 kHz, time resolution 1 sec.)
In both modes (but with different time resolution)
• Measurement of the neutral atmosphere (density, temperature, velocity, composition)
• Measurement of the local ionic and electrical densities from 10^3 to 10^6 cm-3
• Measurement of the local ionic and electrical temperature from 500K to 3000K
• Measurement of the densities, temperatures and velocities of the major ions (H+, He+, O+, NO+)
• Measurement of electron spectrum (＞30 keV) and proton spectrum (＞70 keV)

Satellite

• mass: 110 kg
• dimention: 0.6×0.6×0.8 m (main body)

Orbit Parameter

• low-altitude orbit (800 km)
• nearly polar
• nearly sun synchronous orbit

Mission Parameters

• Launch: The end of 2002
• Duration: 2 years

Mission Data Transmittion

• X-band (10- 20 Mbps: CCSDS)

Data Volume

• Survey mode: 1 Gbit/day
• Burst mode: 14 Gbit/day

Laboratories involved in the Project

• LPCE, CETP, CESR, IPG Paris, LDG-CEA (France)
• ESTEC
• CBK (Poland)
• The University of Electro-Communications (Japan)
• GSFC (USA)

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DEMETERなリンク