Russia Project "Predvestnik"

March 26 St. Petersburg, V. Sapojnikov, Earthquakes annually carry away thousand human lives and put an enormous material damage. It testifies to low efficiency of existing methods of their forecasting. The reliable forecast would allow to reduce sharply number of human victims and to lower material losses. Last years in Russia the complex of physical effects in the ionosphere, on a terrestrial surface and in the atmosphere which can serve as precursors of earthquakes also is abroad revealed. For example, the Russian scientists on satellites in the certain ranges of electromagnetic radiation had been confidently registered precursor signals before one of repeated earthquakes in Armenia and before destructive earthquake in 1990 Iran. In other experiments zones of abnormal electronic concentration in the ionosphere, variations of a terrestrial electric field, abnormal behaviour of natural electromagnetic noise in areas of a preparing earthquake are found out, etc. The analysis of experimental data shows, that set of space and ground precursors can enable to predict earthquakes for the period from 2 hours to 10 days.

For realization of this opportunity, Arsenal design bureau named after M.V.Frunze (St. Petersburg) has suggested to create "Predvestnik" satellite system of global monitoring of earthquake precursors with 6 satellites in low orbits. Satellites will provide the control of electromagnetic and other precursors over an ionosphere, and also relaying of the information from ground stations sejsmodiagnostiki. The center of forecasting will analyze set of space and ground data and operatively to form forecasts.

Project KB "Arsenal" is based on use of a platform existing KA series "Kosmos" of it KB. The ground sector of system is formed basically with existing means seismodiagnostics with necessary additional equipping. Such approach enables to create system at rather low expenses.

The first stage of works under the project "Predvestnik" plans carrying out of space experiment "Predvestnik-E" on the profound studying electromagnetic precursors. During long experiment the necessary volume of data will be received and working off of a technique of forecasting of earthquakes is lead. KB "Arsenal" together with IZMIRAN and scientific and technological centre "Omikron" conduct these works in the initiative order since 1991. The contract design of experiment with accommodation of the equipment as additional useful loading on one of regular KA series "Kosomos" KB "Arsenal" in this connection potrebnye expenses for experiment are minimal (no more than 1 million $) is developed.

Operation of "Predvestnik" system can be commercially favourable business. On a tentative estimation, the annual abonent payment of the countries-users of the information is capable to pay back expenses for its creation within 5 years. KB "Arsenal" conducts search of investors of the project in Russia and overseas.

Leading Institute　IZMIRAN, Russia, Moscow reg., Troitsk
Supporting institutes　Design Bureau "Arsenal", Russia, St Petersburg
Collaborators　NASDA, Japan, Tokyo\nUniversity of Electro-Communications, Japan, Tokyo

For several years, Arsenal KB has been offering the use of its platform for diverse applications. Thus arose the Odissei satellite project for the location and observation of moving objects, the Predvestnik project for the prediction of earth tremors, and the Obzor radar imaging satellite project. But none of these received funding.

地震予知衛星Predvestnik

　サンクト・ペテルブルグでアメリカとロシアの関係者が人工衛星を用いて地震予知を行う共同計画について協議した。

　この計画はPredvestnik（予告者）とよばれ、宇宙からの信号により二昼夜前に地震の場所と時刻を予知しようという計画である。これにより予知精度は現在に比べ一ケタ高くなるものと見られている。両国はこの問題にそれぞれ対応してきているが、今回はその研究開発を一元化するのが狙いである。

　ロシアでは地磁気研究所とアルセナル設計局が共同研究を進め、地震に先行した電磁気変動が認められ、軌道上で検出可能であるとのこと。同様の研究が米スタンフォード大学宇宙センターでも進められていた。これらの研究成果をあわせ、協力方針が打ち出されたのは昨年末のことである。

　この計画にそった軌道モジュール"Predvestnik"は、1997年に打ち上げられる予定。

Arsenal DB was actively looking for foreign investments, particularly to keep expertise in advanced space-faring technologies.
Arsenal had preliminary negotiations with several American companies about development of multifunctional satellites. The Predvestnik proposal reportedly drew attention of some U.S. representatives, which offered to submit it to the Congress, but nothing resulted as of January 1996. However, in March of 1996 Arsenal was reported to sign an agreement with the German Dornier Satellitsystem and an American company (Galaxy) for joint development of Predvestnik system. The American company promised to look for an investor for the project, which was this time said to cost $300 millions. (Nothing has been heard about further development of this project lately).

Space-Based Monitoring Systems and Microlight Satellites

Boris Poletayev, Director and Chief Designer of Frunze Arsenal Design Bureau

Such forecasts are based on experimentally proven anomalous phenomenaяearthquake portents-emerging over a seismic focus in the atmosphere (specific electromagnetic and plasma effects) and in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. The results of research in this field have made it possible to develop a solid scientific foundation and formulate preliminary requirements for the Predvestnik satellite monitoring system. The project has been proposed by the Frunze Arsenal Design Bureau and Earth's Magnetism, Ionosphere and Wave Propagation Institute (IZMIRAN). The system, capable of forecasting earthquakes within 2 to 48 hours, will comprise 20 microlight satellites placed into low Earth and middle-altitude orbits and a network of ground stations. The prediction time will be quite sufficient to sharply decrease human fatalities and material losses.

In the Russian space program includes experiments "Compass", "Compass-1" and "Predvestnik", the purpose of which monitoring space earthquake precursors, but they exist only on paper and can not take place for various reasons. For example, the experiment "Compass-1" under threat of disruption due to the anticipated flooding station "Mir" in June next year, "Predvestnik" has no real funding only experiment, which involves the installation of a satellite ionosonde (U.S.) - is an international experiment "Warning" , in which the role of the organizer claimed Ukraine. Meanwhile, plans have to be content only.
In IZMIRAN designed Multisatellite project "Unigol" suggests flown system of 4 - 6 small satellites, each of which will be an integrated automatic geophysical laboratory.

Satellite Monitoring of Earthquake Precursors

Vitaly Chmyrev, Program Director, International Research and Technology Center of Satellite Payloads;
Deputy Director, Institute of Geomagnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Propagation, Russian Academy of Science (IZMIRAN)
Boris Poletaev, Derector General and General Designer, Arsenal Design Bereau

Russia Plans Satellite To Predict Earthquakes

Predvestnik-E (Arsenal design bureau)

　ロシアの宇宙企業が2001年に世界初の地震予測のために設計された衛星を打ち上げると政府筋が明かした。もし予算が承認されればPredvestnik-Eという名の130kgの衛星は、全球の大地震の警戒を実施する衛星群の最初の１機となるであろう。

　この計画はTsyklon-2ロケットで打ち上げ予定のCosmos衛星のサブペイロードとして、2001年にPredvestnik-Eを打ち上げるものである。 サンクト・ペテルブルグのアルセナル設計局(Arsenal Design Bureau)とトロイツクの地磁気、電離層及び電波伝搬研究所(IZMIRAN)がこの衛星を設計した。

　Predvestnik-Eは高度450km、傾斜角65度の軌道に投入され大地震の前に発生する電離層中の変化を検出する、とArsenalのスポークスマン、ミハイル・キスリツキーは電話でのインタビューに際し、このアイデアでどの地震でも２日から２時間前に予測可能であり、衛星の製作と打ち上げは700万ドル未満程度と答えた。

　ロシア宇宙庁(RKA)は1996年からこの計画に予算を与えてきたが、衛星製作と打ち上げの予算は承認されなかった、とRKAの科学宇宙システム部の職員は語った。しかしながらキスリツキーは、RKA職員が非公式ながら予算の承認を示唆したと語った。もしRKAが予算を承認しなければ、AesenalとIZMIRANは外国の支援を模索するだろうとキスリツキーと語った。

　キスリツキーは、「推進系を持たないこの衛星の寿命は１年未満で、世界中の地震を予知するには高度400～1000kmの軌道上に21機の衛星を必要とする。そのデータ処理には一連の地上局が必要になり、開発、製造、配備に必要な費用は３～４年間で２億5000万ドルになる」と述べている。予報的中率は80％位になるものと考えられており、タイムリーに警報を発動することで犠牲者は半減し、被害総額も20％は削減できるとしている。

　地震による世界中での被害総額は、年間150億ドルから200億ドルに上ると推測されている。

Russia and Japan Developing Satellites for Early Warning of Quakes and Flares

Russia and Japan are developing satellites that would provide early warning of earthquakes and solar flares. If plans for the projects materialize, the Russian satellite for detecting earthquakes could be launched by 2001 and the Japanese satellite could be launched as early as 2005.

The 120-kg Russian satellite, called Predvestnik E, would be the first of a constellation of spacecraft capable of providing global early warning of major earthquake activity. Designed to detect changes in the ionosphere that occur prior to major earthquakes, the satellite would orbit the earth at an altitude of 450 km at an inclination of 65°. Project officials hope to forecast earthquakes between two days and two hours in advance.

俄罗斯计划发射专门用于预报地震的卫星

俄罗斯的官员说，俄罗斯空间 公司希望在2001年发射世界首颗专门设计用于预报地震的卫星。 这颗卫星称为“先驱者-E”（Predvestnik-E），重130公斤，将成为能够为全球提供重 要地震活动早期预报的卫星星座的先驱，计划在2001年作为次要有效载荷随同一颗“宇宙 号”卫星由“旋风-2”（Tsyklon-2）运载火箭发射升空。

Leading Institute　Myasishchev Design Bureau, Russia, Moscow reg., Zhukovsky
Supporting institutes　Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russia, Moscow

A recent seven-point earthquake in Turkmenistan again led experts to reflect on the effective prediction of the disaster. It is estimated that the annual damage from earthquakes in the world is more than $ 20 billion. But the biggest problem - tens of thousands of victims. In 1998 alone, three major earthquakes in Turkey, Greece, Taiwan and Mexico, killing more than 16 thousand people.
The problem of earthquake prediction is the focus of Russian scientists. Since 1990, the St. Petersburg Federal State Unitary Enterprise "KB" Arsenal "to them. MV Frunze "together with the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation (Troitsk, Moscow reg.), Work is underway in this area. They developed a cosmic earthquake warning system for two days, determining the epicenter and approximate time of the disaster. This allows time to warn people of the impending disaster, to evacuate people from the area of the alleged damage, disable, industrial sites, stop nuclear reactors, etc.
The basis of the system of prevention of microsatellite "Harbinger-E" and a set of scientific instruments "Volcano". Its space segment is a two-level grouping of small spacecraft (SC) circular orbits with altitudes of 500 and 1,000 km, created on the basis of standardized platforms. Each satellite carries magnetometers, frequency devices, energetic particle spectrometers, analyzers, plasma, which in the upper atmosphere and ionosphere determine changes in the earth's crust, measure wave characteristics of the Earth's magnetosphere. They pinpoint the sensors and transmitted to Earth.
As the deputy general designer of KB Vladimir Sapozhnikov, research project "Volcano" has been completed. A draft of the base of the satellite and its full-scale model was built. It began stage development activities. There is a design element SC. It will be modular and multi-purpose. Russia already has experience in the use of satellites to forecast seismic disasters. Thus, during the earthquake in Iran in the 80s for several days, scientists were informed about the impending disaster.
Work on the system of "Volcano" conducted with the support and commissioned by the Russian Aviation and Space Agency. It has announced a competition for the project of the satellite constellation. It brings together six organizations in Russia. January 15 is scheduled to bring it up. The winner will receive 290 million rubles. Experts estimate the cost of the project at $ 200 million. The project includes removal of from 8 to 20 satellites, but you can do 6-8.
In parallel, the search for partners and sponsors. Suggestions Japanese, Chilean, Iranian and German experts. It is noteworthy that the "Vulcan" has no foreign analogues. However, work in this direction are French scientists. They are planning to launch a satellite is not earlier than 2002. In Russia, this project can be implemented already this year.

There was a destiny of the project small KA the "Predvestnik", created under the contract with Institute of terrestrial magnetism, an ionosphere and distribution of radiowaves of the Russian academy of sciences (IZMIRAN) for working off of principles of a prediction of earthquakes (analogue - KA "Compass" KB it. Academician V.P.Makeeva (Mias)). However financing project IZMIRAN did not start, and works on the "Predvestnik", the realizations which have reached to a significant stage, have been suspended.
In 2000 Rosaviakosmos has declared competition on the project "Vulkan" (realization - 2006) for creation of space system of the operative short-term forecast of earthquakes. The purpose - increase of reliability of predictions, detection and registration of the abnormal physical phenomena in an atmosphere, an ionosphere and magnitosfere, resulting seismic activity in sejsmoopasnyh regions of Russia. KB "Flight" has taken part in competition with the project "Predvestnik". Other applicants were KB it. V.P.Makeeva, Petersburg "Arsenal", Moscow VNIIEM and situated near Moscow NIIEM. The Omsk project was in the best stage of realization. However in the end 2000 at summarizing the victory over competition was prisuzhdena VNIIEM.