Forecast for earthquake 6 Richter

They recorded electric signals that they warn for big earthquake in the immediately next interval
10/2/2008 9:51:18 pm


New warning by the VAN group, for imminent big earthquake in Greece, based on seismic signals that were recorded in the mean of January, was uploaded at www.arxiv.org, on February 1st, 2008, in the database "Statistical mechanics" of the University of Cornell.

The scientific conclusion from two strong preseismic electric signals "SES", recorded by the VAN network on 10 January, 2008, at Patras and on 14 January, 2008, at Pirgos, is that in the immediate future, a major earthquake with magnitude above 6.0 will occur.

The scientists, that collaborate with VAN group of professor Panayiotis Varotsos, coordinated by professor Akis Tselentis, are now in alarm. They pass long time in the country side, watching continuously the seismic parameters, as well as the measurements of the instruments of their network.

The region under study includes a parallelogram that covers northern, almost half, westwards Peloponnese, the Corinthian Gulf, part of Eptanissa, as well as an area from the Sterea Hellas.

It is worthwhile to be noticed that on 23 November, 2007, in the aforementioned database of Cornell, professor Panayiotis Varotsos and his coworkers had deposited recordings that began on 7 November which pointed to an impending earthquake of magnitude 6 Richter in the region where an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 occurred at Leonidion.

The new data are included in a 14 page report of "SES" (Seismic Electric Signals) deposited at the Cornell database, authored by professor P.A. Varotsos with his coworkers N.V. Sarlis and E.S. Skordas.

Seismic Electric Signals and 1/f "noise" in natural time (P.A. Varotsos, N.V. Sarlis, E.S. Skordas)

Comment from Prof. Varotsos: It might be worthwhile to be added that actually after 4 days, i.e., on February 14, 2008, a major earthquake occurred which -according to USGS http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/ had a magnitude 6.9 and epicenter at 36.64N 21.83E. The predicted region in our arXiv paper was 36.0-38.6N, 20.0-22.5E, and hence the earthquake -which is the largest earthquake in Greece during the last twenty years- occurred inside the predicted area.
The analysis
It is the university where team VAN sends henceforth her scientific reports whenever has from the bodies of network her recording of seismic electric signals. And this because in our country at the past, all times were communicated responsibly studiesof VAN did not enjoy the expected attention.

The report that was sent ago 9 days already has been included in the "Statistical of mechanics" American university. Her content are a extensive analysis, that in the first part is reported in the 4 persjne's forecasts of team VAN, with apposition of all relative elements with prosejsmjka' signals and maps, while it gives at the same time also the confirmation of forecasts, with the earthquakes that followed in interval of certain weeks up to certain months.

The last forecast, that was published 1 February, does not concern the "twin" earthquakes of 4 February. And this because so much the "SES" what the earthquake are analyzed with crowd measurable elements and are taken into consideration a line parameters, in order that the scientists of team VAN have sure conclusions on the characteristics of equivalence between the signals of forecast and earthquake, that verifies the forecast.

The earthquakes of Patras
Allwste, as clarified the professor Akis Tsele'ntis, head of Laboratory of Seismology in the University Patrases, immediately afterwards the event of said "twin" earthquakes of 4 February, with epicentre the Halandrj'tsa Achaia, existed corresponding signal from team VAN, that also had been sent in the Cornell.

In this new signal, that it has particular interesting, it is that in the pages 11 and 12 becomes reason for the new signals that recorded stations VAN, hardly before certain weeks, in Patras and the Tower. More specifically, it results from the references in concrete plans, as the yp No 9 and 13, that is studied a region that includes Patras, Olympia, Westerner Corinthian, Cephalonia, Zakynthos and part of Etoloakarnania, while is studied also the wider more southernly region.

The seismic signals (ses)
as they were recorded and included in the report that it sent in the university Cornell team VAN, according to that is expected earthquake bigger than 6 Rj'hter.

They put finally in the vibrations in the... windows of channels
Finally in the "war of sismologists in the windows of TV. After poly'hrones efforts and juxtapositions, the special scientists per the country will allocate a common system of calculation of earthquakes and will accept a common statement on his characteristics.

A big work of 2,4 mill. of Euros is found under development in order to omogenopoji'sej all the Greek sejsmologjko' network. In the program participate the Universities Athens, Patras and Thessalonica and the Asteroskopej'o Athens, kacw's in the Geodynamic Institute is found the base of system. "Objective is exists a single network. Have all given all the stations and they reach in all of us "says characteristically Mr Mr Makro'poylos professor Everything. Athens and chairman of OASP.

75 sejsmogra'foj
"They will be unified for the creation of network of telecommunication and computers, where they will collaborate 75 sejsmogra'foj. There will come all the geodynamic signals (via Jnternet or satellite from the Hellas sat) and him will receive all through special programs of automatic calculation of epicentre. Thus will come out common bulletin with person in charge the Geodynamic Institute and one from the universities in turn.

We signed also a common statement, memora'ntoym allilokatano'isis in order to ceases the war in the windows ", says with humour the head of OASP and underlines that the differences result because do not use all the same model of speeds for the measurement of speed of seismic wave.

YANNIS KRITJKOY
jkritikos@pegasus.gr

Model of forecast of earthquakes in Japan method VAN
The theory which wants the "ilektromagnitjka' waves" "prole'goyn" befalling seismic vibrations has been found repeatedly in the epicentre of publicity in Japan where it is faced as "one almost messjanjko's way of forecast of earthquakes", according to the publication "Japan Today".

The Institute Natural and Chemical Researches "RIKEN" is brought "imported" in the Country of Rising Helium a method of forecast of earthquakes from Greece the decade 1980. the Ja'pwnes collaborates with Panagiotis Varw'tso from 1997, while from 1996 and afterwards, they invested more from 6,4 millions of Euros in scientifically project type VAN. Globally the country invests perj' the 100 millions dollars annually in the growth of methods of forecast of earthquakes.

More concretely, the team of Japanese Seiya Uyeda from the Earhtquake Prediction Research Centre of the Tokai University, is brought it accomplished using method VAN to forecast equitably seismic activity which began on 26 June in the peninsula Jzoy.

The Japanese admire so much the Varw'tso what him they made until hero in comics manga.

The inquiring centre
Japanese Scientific and Technological Service (JST) considers that the "forecast of earthquakes is possible". The Inquiring Centre of Forecast of Earthquakes (EPRC) functions in the country from the 1994. Similar inquiring centre functions also in the University of Kyoto, while in the frame of Coordinative Committee for the Forecast of Earthquakes (CCEP) state and universities collaborate exchanging information and publishing two reports each year.

Japan waits for a big earthquake, which, according to certain scientists, is to be realised before 2010.

G. Skafj'das

Attitude of waiting observe the sismologists
For the subject we attempted to come in contact with the head of team VAN, professor Panagiotis Varw'tso, that polite us djami'nyse, via his narrow collaborator, that it does not give interviews and if him it makes with us, it should continuity it speaks to the channels, while it has a lot of pressure of work.

The professor Akis Tsele'ntis to us said "cannot currently say details for new signals, but in the direct future we will have many to say for the forecasts and network VAN".

The researcher in the Geodynamic Institute, National Asteroskopej'o Athens, Gerasimos Hoylja'ras, to us said: "I am not in place I announce results of scientific researches that am not i personally involved".

With 19 millions finances the G.G.E.T. the seismic research in Greece

Many millions of Euros are been disposed for the seismic research, the comprehension of phenomena, the growth of infrastructures for the follow-up of earthquakes and the confrontation of repercussions that they cause.

With her recent statement G.G. E.T. reports the financing of 81 inquiring work with total expense 19.253.454,23 Euro. Objective, as it is marked, is "the promotion and distribution of researches in the sector of earthquakes, in order that the conclusions that result contribute in the knowledge for the minimisation of their dangers".

Universities and private individuals
Most from these find in development and it is forecasted to finish in in 2008. At the same time they are reported enough that theoretically already has been completed with date of expiry years 2004 up to 2007. Ana'mesa in en evolves work is included the Constitution of National Sejsmologjkoy' of Network with seat the geodynamic Institute with public expense 2.421.000 Euros.

With important sums also is materialised work as the program of estimate of seismic vulnerability of buildings for the Urban group Thessalonica (APC, public expense 1 mill. of Euros) the system of management of seismic danger in forehead of Greek arc with application in Chania and Heraklion (POLYTECHNIC COLLEGES Heraklion, public expense 501.000 Euros) as well as the automatic system of follow-up tsoyna'mj in Crete (Techical university Crete, public expense 480.000 Euros).

Proportionally high financing they had also certain that expired in the recent past. As the Completed Methodology of Estimate of Seismic danger for the safety of infrastructures in coastal areas (ELKECE public expense 1,5 mill. of Euros) and the antiseismic protection of bridges (APC 1,298.000 Euro).

In the same list of work exist a lot of programs with public expense of 9-18.000 Euros. In the list of GGET with the financing is included also one only program with scientific person in charge the professor of university Mr P. Varw'tso of (known method VAN).

The program of height 13.866,47 Euro had as beginning in June 2001 and expiry in December 2004. his Subject was the study of distribution of agwnjstjko'titas of regions sensitive in the recording of prosejsmjkw'n electric waves in Ukraine...

G. Apostolj'dis

Acknowledgement: I wish to express my gratitude to Prof. Varotsos who gave additional information and corrected the translation.

Source: Forecast for earthquake 6 Richters (Ethnos)
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